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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67916


    Title: 景氣循環下的菸品消費分析
    The Analysis of Cigarette Cousumption Under the Business Cycle
    Authors: 朱育萱
    Contributors: 羅光達
    朱育萱
    Keywords: 菸品消費
    景氣循環
    不對稱分析
    家庭收支調查報告
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2014-07-29 16:14:25 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究探討我國家戶菸品消費支出受景氣循環之影響效果,並將我國總體景氣波動區分為繁榮期及衰退期,觀察景氣榮枯對菸品消費支出的影響是否具有(不)對稱性。資料來源為1979年至2012年之《台灣地區家庭收支調查報告》,以我國經濟成長率作為總體景氣波動指標,並放入可能影響家戶菸草消費支出之變數,建立一個時間序列的複迴歸模型,進行實證分析。本文除了探討我國全體家戶之菸草消費支出特性,亦將所有家戶樣本依可支配所得進行分組,探討不同所得族群的菸草消費特性差異。

      實證結果顯示,不論是全體家戶、低所得家戶或高所得家戶,經濟成長率對菸草消費支出的影響都顯著為負,顯示我國家戶菸草消費支出具有逆景氣循環的特性,且與高所得家戶相較之下,景氣波動對低所得家戶之菸草消費支出的影響較大。另外,透過景氣(不)對稱性的分析,本文發現景氣之繁榮期或衰退期,對我國家戶菸品消費支出之影響效果並無顯著不同。因此,本研究認為我國家戶菸品消費支出在景氣波動下具有對稱性的反應。

      綜上所述,本文針對政府及菸商提出相關的建議如下:第一,由於總體景氣波動確實會影響家戶之菸品消費且為逆循環反應,建議政府及菸商面對景氣循環的不同階段,應要訂定不同的政策與行銷策略。第二,因為菸品消費支出具有景氣的對稱性,所以在政策效果的預測上,我們可以利用景氣繁榮期菸品消費支出的影響結果,直接預測景氣衰退期的菸品消費結果,反之亦然。
    Reference: 一、中文文獻
    林煥德(2009),《臺灣吸菸家庭之稅捐負擔與其家庭特徵之研究》,國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
    林姵妤(2010),《台灣紙菸市場需求與管理政策之探討》,國立臺灣大學農業經濟學研究所碩士論文。
    李政峰、連春紅、康銘欽(2012),《課徵菸品稅對香菸消費及國民健康之實證分析》,管理創新與行銷專案研討會,高雄,台灣。
    李家銘、葉春淵、黃琮琪(2006),「菸價要調漲多少:菸品健康福利捐課徵對香菸消費的影響效果」,《人文及社會科學集刊》,18(1),1-35。
    郭炳伸、鐘景婷(2002),「消費行爲受資金流動性限制嗎?經濟景氣的不對稱效果」,《經濟論文》,30(4),443-472。
    陳佳利(2006),《景氣波動不對稱傳遞效果之實證研究》,國立東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。
    許雯(2010),《總體景氣波動對銀行業不良債權比率》,國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
    黃萬霖(2014),《景氣循環下的酒品消費支出》,國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
    葉佳宜(2013),《以家庭收支調查報告分析消費的不對稱行為》,國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
    葉春淵、邱成英、李家銘、黃玟儀、洪榮耀(2009),「香菸課稅效果之研究-門檻迴歸模型之運用」,《台灣公共衛生雜誌》,28(4),289-299。
    蔡憶文(2005),《評估菸酒稅法及其對菸品消費市場之影響》,行政院衛生署國民健康局九十三年度菸害防制研究及工作計畫研究報告。

    二、英文文獻
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    Becker, G. S. , and K. M. Murphy (1988), “A theory of rational addiction,” Journal of Political Economy, 96(4): 675-700.
    Charles, K. K.and P. Decicca(2008), “Local Labor Market Fluctuations and Health: Is There a Connection and for Whom? ” Journal of Health Economics 27(6): 1532-1550
    Czubek, M., and S. Johal (2010), "Econometric analysis of cigarette consumption in the UK", HMRC Working Paper, 9.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    101255016
    102
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101255016
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 學位論文

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