Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/68559
|
| Title: | 國際水資源競合之研究
An Analysis of International Water Conflict and Cooperation |
| Authors: | 郭昕光 |
| Contributors: | 李明
郭昕光 |
| Keywords: | 水資源
水資源衝突
水資源合作
水資源互動 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| Issue Date: | 2014-08-12 14:07:40 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 水是一切生命和人類活動的基礎，水的重要性凌駕於其他所有資源。現今地球上雖有13.8億立方公尺的水，但其中97%以上皆是海水，淡水尚不及3%。而在淡水組成中，絕大多數又屬不便取用的冰川，約占70%。雖然全世界的水量，長久以來並無明顯變化，但在人口數量不斷成長，加以都市化與工業化的蓬勃發展下，全球「年人均逕流量」( yearly world run-off per capita ) 已經從1800年的40,000立方公尺，降至1995年的6,840立方公尺，預估2025年時更只有4,692立方公尺。
水資源的短缺不僅導致糧作減產，增加貧窮人口，擴大疾病傳染，甚至迫使人們不得不離鄉背井，另謀生路。環境安全研究者Thomas F. Homer-Dixon直指，水資源的短缺會破壞國家的執政能力，是造成國家內部社會動盪，乃至國際衝突的重要因素。水不僅是具有重要經濟價值的商品，水更是所有生命賴以延續的必需品。若稱水是生命之泉，那麼掌握水資源也就是一種權力(power)的象徵。對於某些國家或民族而言，水甚至還具有一定情感和文化上的意義。水資源短缺帶給國際社會的衝擊，究竟只是危言聳聽的誤導，還是不斷迫近的安全危機，國家又如何能夠化險為夷？深入瞭解國際水資源的互動，實屬必要。
前世界銀行副總裁薩拉傑丁(Ismail Serageldin)1995年的預言，「本世紀的戰爭是因石油而起，下個世紀的戰爭將是為水而戰」，這句話不僅已成為近20年來最重要的名言之一，也和其他類似的警語，成為了水資源研究的主流思想。不過水資源戰爭的推論缺乏實證支持。Aaron Wolf帶領的美國奧瑞岡州立大學研究團隊發現，儘管國際河川流域潛藏著紛爭的可能，但實際上國家之間因水資源而引發激烈衝突的案例，卻遠少於合作的案例。從1948到1999年間，全世界只有37件與水相關的激烈暴力衝突。相對的同一時期，則有157件條約或在協商之中或已完成簽署。對於水戰爭的預測，在Arron Wolf等人看來，只是來自譁眾取寵的媒體和一些沒有經過嚴格審查的論文罷了。不過Arron Wolf等人也發現，在對立的案例中，90%都是與水量及其基礎建設工程有關，且絕大部分嚴重的武裝衝突，都和這兩項因素息息相關。在破除水資源戰爭的迷思之前，實有必要對於國際水資源的互動關係進行通盤的檢視。
儘管過去已有部分學者，以統計分析的方法，從事相關議題的量化研究。不過至今尚無針對全體國際河川共有國家，水資源互動之綜合性比較分析。在力求符合1、水資源的衝突與合作研究並重；2、研究範圍涵蓋所有國際河川流經國家；3、兼顧水資源本身與非水資源因素之討論等三項條件下，本論文收集1948年至2007年間，263條國際河川之國家配對相關資料。透過檢視每一國家配對水資源量的各項統計數據，不同政治、經濟、軍事、人口等國家特質，以及國家配對長期互動之紀錄，本研究依序從水資源互動的變異、衝突與合作的發生，以及因素組合解釋模型之建立等三個層次，全面探討影響水資源競合的內涵。
經過一系列相關統計分析，本論文成功建立了水資源互動的最佳因素組合解釋模型，證實水資源在需求面及結構面上所發生的短缺，的確會增加水資源衝突的風險。然而國家特質本身，特別是綜合國力因素，對於國際水資源互動的發生與形式，更有直接且明顯的影響。值得注意的是，除了可以具體量化的變數外，國際政治關係、政府議價能力，以及水權觀念的轉變等，對於水資源互動，也有不容忽視的作用。
在水資源戰爭論與合作說的爭辯中，本論文連結了看似對立的兩種現象於同一研究之中，希望在各方的疑慮與樂觀中，對國際關係中水資源議題的了解，能夠有所助益，並期待引領來自學界更多的關注。 |
| Reference: | 專書
楊通進，高予遠，2007。現代文明的生態轉向。重慶：重慶出版社。
鄧常春，2009。南亞次大陸經濟發展與區域安全。成都：四川大學出版社。
周晉澄等譯，2006。2005世界現況：邁向永續社會進展報告。台北：看守台灣研究中心。
Alam, Sarfaraz. 2003. Environmentally Induced Migration from Bangladesh to India. New Delhi: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
Axelrod, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books.
Baldwin, David. 1993. Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate. NY: Columbia University Press.
Barkin, Samuel, and George Shambaugh, eds. 1999. Anarchy and the Environment: The International Relations of Common Pool Resources. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.
Beach, Heather, Jesse Hamner, Joseph Hewitt, Edy Kaufman, Anja Kurki, Joe Oppenheimer, and Aaron T. Wolf. 2000. Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Resolution: Theory, Practice and Annotated Reference. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
Beaumont, Peter. 1997. “Water and Armed Conflict in the Middle East – Fantasy or Reality?” In Conflict and the Environment, edited by N. P. Gleditsch. Netherlands: Kluwer Academic.
Black, Maggic, and Janet King. 2009. The Atlas of Water: Mapping the World’s Most Critical Resource. LA: University of California.
Blatter, Joachim, and Helen Ingram, eds. 2001. Reflections on Water: New Approaches to Transboundary Conflicts and Cooperation. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Bulloch, John, and Adel Darwish. 1993. Water Wars: Coming Conflicts in the Middle East. London: Victor Gollance.
Burton, John. 1972. World Society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Chellaney, Brahma. 2001. Waters: Asia’s New Battleground. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press.
Choucri, Nazli, and Robert North. 1975. Nations in Conflicts. San Francisco: Freeman.
Dolatyar, Mostafa, and Tim S. Gray. 2000. Water Politics in the Middle East: A Context for Conflict or Co-operation? New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Elhance, Arun P. 1999. Hydropolitics in the Third World: Conflict and Cooperation in International River Basins. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Gangulyed, Sumit. 2010. India’s Foreign Policy: Retrospect and Prospect. New Dehli: Oxford University Press.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, ed. 1997. Conflict and the Environment. London: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Gleick, Peter H., ed. 1993. Water in Crisis: A Guide to the World’s Fresh Water Systems. New York: Oxford University Press.
Gleick, Peter H., ed. 1998. The World’s Water: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
Hobbes, Thomas. 1973. Leviathan. London: Dent.
Holsti, Ole, Randolph Siverson, and Alexander George, eds. 1980. Changes in the International System. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. 1996. Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Iyer, Ramaswamy. 2003. Water: Perspectives, Issues, Concerns. New Delhi: Sage Publications India.
Just, Richard, and Sinaia Netanyahu, eds. 1998. Conflict and Cooperation on Transboundary Water Resources. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Kliot, Nurit. 1994. Water Resources and Conflict in the Middle East. London: Routledge.
Knorr, Klaus. 1975. The Power of Nations: The Political Economy of International Relation. New York: Basic Books.
LeMarquand, David. 1977. International Rivers: The Politics of Cooperation. Vancouver: Westwater Research Center.
Lowi, Miriam R., & Brian R. Shaw, eds. 2000. Environment and Security: Discourses and Practices. Basingstoke: Macmillan Press.
Lowi, Miriam R. 1993. Water and Power: The Politics of a Scarce Resource in the Jordan River Basin. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1967. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York, NY: Knopf.
Mustafa, Daanish. 2013. Water Resource Management in a Vulnerable World. London: J.B. Tauris.
Myers, Norman. 1989. Ultimate Security: The Environmental Basis of Political Stability. New York: Norton.
Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, and Rajul Pandya-Lorch, eds. 2001. The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty, and Environmental Degradation. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Rogers, Peter, and Peter Lydon, eds. 1994. Water in the Arab World: Perspectives and Prognoses. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Schrodt, Philip A. 1995. “Event Data in Foreign Policy Analysis.” In Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation, edited by Laura Neack, Jeanne A. K. Hey, and Patrick J. Haney. NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Schmeier, Susanne. 2010. Governing International Watercourses -- Perspectives from Different Disciplines: Working Papers 53. Jertie School of Governance.
Soffer, Arnon. 1999. Rivers of Fire. Kanham, MA: Rowman and Littlefield.
Thomas, Raju G. C., ed. 1992. Perspectives on Kashmir: The Roots of Conflict in South Asia. Boulder: West View Press.
Turton, Anthony, and Roland Henwood, eds. 2002. Hydropotitics in the Developing World: A Southern African Perspective. Pretoria: AWIRU.
Waltz, Kenneth. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Waterbury, John. 1979. Hydropolitics of the Nile Valley. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press.
Westing, Arthur, ed. 1986. Global Resources and International Conflict: Environmental Action in Strategic Policy and Option. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Westing, Arthur H. 1989. Comprehensive Security for the Baltic: An Environmental Approach. London: Sage.
Wolf, Aaron T., ed. 1992. Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Water Systems. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
Wolf, Arron, and J. Hammer. 2000. “Trends in Transboundary Water Disputes and Dispute Resolution.” In Water for Peace in the Middle East and Southern Africa. Washington, D.C.: Green Cross International.
期刊
Alam, Undala Z. 2002. “Questioning the Water Wars Rationale: A Case Study of the Indus Waters Treaty.” The Geographical Journal 168(4): 341-53.
Amery, Hussein A. 1993. “The Litani River of Lebanon.” Geographic Review 83(3): 229-38.
Amery, Jussein A. 2002. “Water Wars in the Middle East: A Loomimg Threat.” The Geographical Journal 168(4): 313-323.
Axelrod, Robert, & Robert Keohane. 1985. “Achieving Cooperation under Anarchy: Strategies and Institutions.” World politics 38(1): 226-254.
Barnaby, Wendy. 2009. “Do Nations Go to War Over Water?” Nature. 458: 282-283.
Bremer, Stuart A. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36: 309-341.
Brochmann, Marit, and Paul R. Hensel. 2009. “Peaceful Management of International Rivers Claims.” International Negotiation 14: 393-418.
Cooley, John. 1984. “The War Over Water.” Foreign Policy 54: 3-26.
Dell, Melissa, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken. 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4(3): 66-95.
DeStefano, Lucia, Paris Edwards, Lynette de Silva, and Aaron T. Wolf. 2010. “Tracking cooperation and Conflict in International Basins: Historic and Recent Trend.” Water Policy 12: 871-884.
Dinar, Shlomi. 2006. “Assessing Side-Payment and Cost-Sharing Patterns: The Geographic and Economic Connection.” Political Geography 25(4): 412-437.
Dinar, Shlomi. 2009. “Power Asymmetry and Negotiations in International River Basins.” International Negotiation 14: 329-360.
Dinar, Shlomi. 2009. “Scarcity and Cooperation Along International Rivers.” Global Environmental Politics 9(1): 109-135.
Fischhendler, Itay, and Eran Feitelson. 2003. “Spatial Adjustment as a Mechanism for Resolving River Basin Conflicts: The US-Mexico Case.” Political Geography 22(5): 557-583.
Furlong, Kathryn, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. 2003. “The Boundary Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 20: 93-117.
Furlong, Kathryn, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Harard Hegre. 2006. “Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries, Shared Rivers, and Conflict.” International Interaction: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relation 31(1): 79-108.
Giordano Meredith A. and Aaron T. Wolf. 2003. “Sharing Waters: Post-Rio International Water Management.” Nationl Resources Forum 27: 164.
Giordano, Mark, Meredith Giordano, and Aaron Wolf. 2005. “International Resource Conflict and Mitigation.” Journal of Peace Research 24(1): 47-65.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 1998. “Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature.” Journal of Peace Research 35(3): 381-400.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Kathryn Furlong, Havard Hegre, Bethany Lacina, and Taylor Owen. 2006. “Conflict over Shared Rivers: Resource Scarcity or Fuzzy Boundaries.” Political Geography 25(4): 361-382.
Gleick, Peter H. 1993. “Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security.” International Security 18(1): 79-112.
Gleick, Peter H. & Matthew Heberger. 2012. “Water and Conflict: Event, Trend, and Analysis (2011-2012).” Water brief 3: 159-171.
Gottmann, Jean. 1951. “Geography and International Relation.” World Politics 2(2): 161-171.
Haddadin, Munther J. 2002. “Water in the Middle East Peace Process.” The Geographical Journal 168(2): 324-340.
Haftendorn, Helga. 2003. “Water and International Conflict.” Third World Quarterly 21(1): 51-68.
Hauge, Wenche, and Tanja Ellingsen. 1998. “Beyond Environmental Scarcity: Causal Pathways to Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 35(3): 299-317.
Hensel, Paul, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, and Thomas Sowers. 2006. “Conflict Management of Riparian Disputes.” Political Geography 25(4): 383-411.
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. 1994. “Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases.” International Security 19: 5-40.
Hossain, Ishtiaq. 1998. “Bangladesh-India Relations: The Ganges Water-Sharing Treaty and Beyond,” Asian Affairs 25(3): 331-350.
Keohane, Robert, and Lisa Martin. 1995. “The Promise of Institutionalist Theory,” International Security 20(1): 39-51.
Lowi, Miriam R. 1995. “Rivers of Conflict, Rivers of Peace.” Journal of International Affairs 49(1): 123-44.
Lumumba, Patrick Loch Otieno. 2007. “The Interpretation of the 1929 Treaty and Its Legal Relevance and Implications for the Stability of the Region.” African ociological Review 11(1): 10-24.
Morris, Mary E. 1997. “Water and Conflict in the Middle East: Threats and Opportunities,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 20: 67-93.
Naff, Thomas. 1997. “Information, Water and Conflict: Exploring the Linkages in the Middle East.” Water International 22(1): 16-28.
Rijsberman, Frank R. 2006. “Water Scarcity: Fact or Fiction?” Agricultural Water Management 80: 5-22.
Sigman, Hillary. 2004. “Does Trade Promote Environmental Coordination? Pollution in International Rivers.” Contributions to Economic Analysis and Polity 3(2): 1-24.
Starr, Harvey. 2002. “Opportunity, Willingness, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS): Reconceptualizing Borders in International Relation.” Political Geography 21: 243-261.
Starr, Joyce. 1991. “Water Wars.” Foreign Policy 82: 17-36.
Swain, Ashok. 2002. “The Nile Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Too Little Broth.” SAIS Review 22(2): 293-302.
Toset, Hans, Peter Wollebak, Nils Petter Gleditsch, & Havard Hegre. 2000. “Shared Rivers and Interstate Conflict.” Political Geography 19: 971-996.
Tir, Jaroslav, & John T, Ackerman. 2009. “Politics of Formalized River Cooperaton.” Journal of Peace Research 46(5): 623-640.
Uitto, Juha I. and Alfred M. Duda. 2002. “Management of Transboundary Water Resources: Lessons from International Cooperation for Conflict Prevention.” The Geographical Journal 168(4): 365-378.
Uitto, Juha I., & Aaron T. Wolf. 2002. “Water Wars? Geographical Perspectives: Introduction.” The Geographical Journal 168(4): 289-292.
Wesley, Paul James. 1962. “Frequency of Wars and Geographical Opportunity.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 6: 387-399.
Wirsing, Robert G. and Christopher Jasparro. 2007. “River Rivalry: Water Disputes, Resource Insecurity and Diplomatic Deadlock in South Asia.” Water Policy 9: 231-251.
Wolf, Aaron T. 1998. “Conflict and Cooperation along International Waterways.” Water Policy 1: 251-265.
Wolf, Aaron T. 1999. “International Rivers Basins of the World.” Water Resources Development 15(4): 387-427.
Wolf, Aaron T. 2002. “Criteria for Equitable Allocations: The Heart of International Water Conflict.” Natural Resources Forum 23(1): 3-30.
Wolf, Aaron, Shira Yoffe, and Mark Giordano. 2003. “International Waters: Identifying Basins at Risk.” Water Policy 5(1): 29-60.
Yoffe, Shira, Aaron T. Wolf, and Mark Giordano. 2003. “Conflict and Cooperation Over Internationl Freshwater Resources: Indicators of Basins at Risk.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 39: 1109-1126.
Zeitoun, Mark, and Jeroen Warner. 2006. “Hydro-Hegemony – A Framework for Analysis of Transboundary Water Conflicts.” Water Policy 8(5): 435-460
網路資料
Antelava, Natalia. “Jordan faces up to water crisis.” BBC News, October 6, 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8292228.stm
Bajpaee, Chietigj. “Asia’s Coming Water Wars.” Power and Interest Report, August 22, 2006.
http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/News_Room/Multimedia/coverage/pdf/Asia`s%20Coming%20Water%20Wars.pdf
Crossette, Barbara. “Severe Water Crisis Ahead for Poorest Nations in Next Two Decades.” New York Times, August 10, 1995.
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/08/10/world/severe-water-crisis-ahead-for-poorest-nations-in-next-2-decades.html
Hensel, Paul R., and Marit Brochmann. “Armed Conflict over International Rivers: The Onset and Militarization of River Claims.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of International Studies Association Chicago (March 2007).
http://oregondigital.org/cdm4/item_viewer.php?CISOROOT=/tfdd&CISOPTR=7001&CISOBOX=1&REC=7
International Freshwater Treaties Database. Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database.
http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/projects/internationalDB.html
International Water Events Database. Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database.
http://ocid.nacse.org/cgi-bin/qml/tfdd/eventsearch.qml
Ishfag-ul-Hassan. “Millitants Sobotage Works on J&K Lake.” DNA Analysis, August 30, 2012.
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-militants-sabotage-works-on-jk-lake-1734411
Jha, Hari Bansh. “Mahakali Treaty Outcome of Economic Nationalism.” The Himalayan Times, December 21, 2009.
http://article.wn.com/view/2009/12/21/Mahakali_Treaty_Outcome_of_economic_nationalism/
Pacific Institute, Environment and Security Water Conflict Chronology.
http://worldwater.org/conflictchronology.pdf
Rahman, Majeed A. “The Geopolitics of Water in the Nile River Basin.” Global Research. July 24, 2011.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-geopolitics-of-water-in-the-nile-river-basin/25746
Roy, Robie I. Samanta (1997). “India-Bangladish Water Dispute. ICE Case 78.” WOW Case Studies. Washington, D.C.: American University, 1997.
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/06/08/india-bangladesh-water-disputes-and-teesta-river-diplomacy/
The Ilisu Campaign, KHRP and the Corner House. “Downstream Impacts of Turkish Dam Construction in Syria and Iraq: Joint Report of Fact-Finding Mission to Syria and Iraq.”
http://www.khrp.org/publish/list02.htm
The Global Development Research Center. “The Dublin Statement on Water and Sustainable Development.”
http://www.gdrc.org/uem/water/w-understanding.html
United Nations. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of international Watercourses.
http://untreaty.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/englich/conventions
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Office of South Asia Analysis. Resource Disputes in South Asia: Water Scarcity and the Potential for Interstate Conflict, by Emma Condon, et al. June 1, 2009.
http://www.lafollette.wisc.edu/publications/workshops/2009/southasia.pdf
Vidal, John. “Troubled Waters for Bangladesh as India Presses on with Plan to Divert Major Rivers.” The Guardian, July 24, 2003.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2003/jul/24/water.india |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
外交研究所
96253505
102 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096253505 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 350501.pdf | 3121Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 1420 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
