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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/69261


    Title: 總體景氣波動對我國政府稅課收入之不對稱分析
    The Asymmetric Influence of Macroeconomic Fluctuation on Government Revenues
    Authors: 曾彥登
    Contributors: 羅光達
    曾彥登
    Keywords: 總體景氣循環
    稅課收入
    不對稱分析
    Date: 2012
    Issue Date: 2014-08-25 15:28:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文研究目的在於探討總體景氣對於我國稅收的影響,與其影響效果是否具有不對稱性,並檢驗景氣繁榮時政府的稅收是否能夠顯著增加。在資料處理方面,我們分別利用QA檢定與ADF檢定確認稅收資料是否具有結構性變動與穩定的資料狀態。針對不穩定的資料我們以H-P過濾器計算出該資料的趨勢值,將各變數以偏離比率表示來去除時間趨勢與單根的問題後,配合我國1959年至2011年的其他總體變數資料,利用最小平方法(ordinary least squares, OLS)進行實證研究。
    本研究發現政府各項租稅皆不存在結構性變動,且所有稅收資料皆不屬於穩定的資料型態,在去除時間趨勢與單根的問題後,我們發現景氣確實影響政府總稅課收入,人口成長率與貿易開放程度皆對總稅收正面的貢獻,亦符合文獻的結論。除此之外,我們證實景氣對稅課收入有不對稱的影響,而且在景氣衰退期間對總稅收的影響程度大於景氣繁榮期間。除總稅收的分析外,本文將賦稅收入細分為直接稅與間接稅,同時我們也將稅課收入中的所得稅、消費稅與財產稅納入模型,結果發現景氣波動皆對所有的稅收資料有不對稱的影響。但在直接稅與間接稅的分析中,我們無法確認景氣榮、枯對收入的影響效果大小。而所得稅、消費稅與財產稅的實證分析指出,在景氣衰退期間所得稅與財產稅皆呈現顯著短收的現象。景氣繁榮時,只有消費稅將因景氣好轉而增加收入。但美中不足的是,部分係數未達10%的顯著水準,因此我們無法透過係數絕對值的比較,判斷景氣衰退與繁榮期間對於所得稅、消費稅與財產稅的影響效果何者較大。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    100255019
    101
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100255019
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 學位論文

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