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| Title: | 唐提年金在長壽風險下之運作
The Role of Tontine Annuity Schemes in Longevity Risk |
| Authors: | 王湘惠
Wang, Hsiang Hui |
| Contributors: | 謝明華
Hsieh, Ming Hua
王湘惠
Wang, Hsiang Hui |
| Keywords: | 長壽風險
唐提年金
蒙地卡羅演算法 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| Issue Date: | 2014-11-03 10:09:26 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 由於人口死亡率的改善，全球人口高齡化現象已成為各國重視的議題，此人口結構的重大改變除了增添國家經濟發展的變量，所導致的長壽風險更衝擊著政府退休基金以及提供年金商品的保險公司。本研究將探討唐提年金制度之運作，期望能以唐提年金作為政府以及保險公司解決長壽風險之工具。
引用Piggott et al. (2005)之GSA模型(Group Self-Annuitization)，並以人口資料庫(Human Mortality Database)中之台灣男性死亡率資料進行情境模擬分析。相較于Piggott et al. (2005)，本文為探討未來死亡率改善趨勢對給付之影響，使用Lee-Carter死亡率模型來預估未來死亡率；另外，不同於Piggott et al. (2005)假設固定的投資報酬率，本文考慮每期投資報酬率之波動作為給付計算的重要參數之一。
本研究發現(1).不管是哪種投資組合當中，每期的平均年金給付隨著計劃時間增加。(2).每期的平均年金給付以及給付之分配在股票部位越高的投資組合中有越高的波動性。(3).GSA模型當中， 死亡率變數對於平均年金給付的影響較投資報酬率變數為大。另外，本文亦比較唐提年金制度與確定給付制度之不同：(1).唐提年金俱有充分的基金儲備特色，基金破產機率有限。(2). 在唐提年金體制下，退休金計劃提供者無需承擔基金投資風險。
Tontine annuity schemes are introduced as a solution for annuity providers and governments to alleviate longevity risk. Applying Taiwan male mortality data to Group Self-Annuitization (GSA) as proposed in Piggott et al. (2005), this paperuses the Lee-Carter model, which incorporates longevity risk, in a simulation study to demonstrate how benefit payments increase in elder ages underdifferent scenarios. Unlike Piggott et al. (2005), we include deviations in both mortality and rate of return from expectations to compare benefit payments amongdifferent portfolios. Moreover, this paperdescribes the two features by whichtontine annuity schemesprevail overTaiwan’s Labor Insurance Annuity Schemes (LIAS): First, tontine annuity schemes are almost always fully funded. Second, the plan sponsor of tontine annuity schemesdoes not need to bear the investment risk. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
101358015
103 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101358015 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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