English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 109952/140887 (78%)
Visitors : 46311561      Online Users : 103
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 財務管理學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/71557


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/71557


    Title: An Empirical Analysis of Determination of House Prices in the Taipei Area
    Other Titles: 台北地區住宅價格決定因素之實證研究
    Authors: 陳明吉
    Chen, Ming-Chi;Kanak Patel
    Contributors: 財管系
    Keywords: 住宅價格;共積理論;誤差修正模型
    house price;cointegration;error-correction model
    Date: 2002-12
    Issue Date: 2014-11-19 15:52:57 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 國內過去數10年間的住宅產價格有著劇烈的起伏，本文試著使用計量經濟模型來分析台北地區住宅價格長期與短期的變動。理論模型採用了晚近住宅研究中所使用的使用者成本觀念，並且試圖解釋國內住宅市場的特殊現象包括強烈投資需求、濃厚預期心理與短期價格暴漲的行為。所以本文運用一些計量估計方式如適用性與理性預期的並用來解釋預期心理現象，以及使用非線性模式來解釋短期快速的價格變動。實證結果發現在長期方面，家庭所得、建築成本與住宅供給的確是重要的影響因素，特別是所得是推動住宅價格長期上漲的重要因素，但在短期則是投資需求對住宅價格有顯著影響，如貨幣供給額、股價都是重要影響因素。使用非線性模式的確可解釋國內短期快速的價格變動，但理性預期模式並不能提供較佳的解釋效果，市場預測還是以依據過去經驗為主。而90年代初期的文獻認為住宅市場在80年代末期經過結構性轉變，但本文的測試卻有不同的證據。
    The volatile behaviour of Taipei housing prices is analysed using econometric models in this study. Alternative econometric models are specified to explain a number of special features of the Taipei housing market including the strong investment demand emanating both from domestic and foreign monetary expansion, excess demand fuelling price expectations and short-run variability in housing prices. We attempt to analyse alternative specifications of backward and forward looking expectation mechanisms, as well as a non-linear price term, to capture the rapid price adjustment behaviour. The results of the long-run equilibrium model indicate that household income is the most important long-run housing price determinant. The short-run dynamic models suggest housing investment variables such as stock prices and money supply are essential. The non-linear price term provides a good estimation of short-run fluctuations in housing prices but the forward-looking expectations mechanism is not helpful. The supposed structural change in the late 1980s is not empirically verified.
    Relation: Taiwan Economic Review, 30(4), 563-595
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[財務管理學系] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    563-595.pdf2353KbAdobe PDF2808View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback