政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/73382
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 113648/144635 (79%)
造访人次 : 51671668      在线人数 : 188
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/73382


    题名: 現任縣市長支持之研究：多層次貝氏統計之應用
    其它题名: Incumbent Support: Data Analysis Using Bayesian Multilevel Models
    作者: 蔡佳泓
    Tsai, Chia-Hung
    贡献者: 選研中心
    关键词: 市長選舉;施政表現;投票行為;多層次貝氏統計模型;Mayor Election;Government Performance;Voting Behavior;Bayesian Multilevel Model
    日期: 2014-12
    上传时间: 2015-02-09 14:23:21 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 過去對於政策與投票的研究偏重個別縣市的影響因素，並未考慮縣市之間的差異，推論範圍有限。我們利用台灣選舉與民主化（TEDS 2010C）的調查資料，合併來自台北市、台中縣、台中市、高雄縣、高雄市等五個縣市的受訪者，而且運用五都改制前的決算資料，以多層次貝氏統計模型估計縣市之間的差異以及個人的政策滿意度影響現任者支持的程度。結果發現在考慮政黨認同之後，社福、交通、環保等三項政策的施政滿意度顯著地影響投票行為，而且縣市之間的確存在差異，但是這三項政策的預算並未影響縣市之間的差異。我們也比較多層次模型的估計結果與勝算對數迴歸模型以確認結果的可信度。
    Democratic governments should seek for the best interest for citizens. In theory, incumbents should persuade voters to support them again with their performance, including budget distribution. It is important to evaluate the extent to which voters respond to government performance and re-elect the incumbents. This paper uses data from Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS 2010C) and set up five clusters of respondents according to their residence in five counties or cities. Utilizing multi-level Bayesian analysis, I combine aggregate-level budget data of social welfare, transportation, and environmental protection, and corresponding survey data to test the hypothesis of individual and geographical influence on voting behavior. The results show that individual`s policy evaluation significantly influences voting behavior, while partisanship is taken into account. But government spending seems to have no impact on the probability of supporting the incumbents. A validation check of the estimates is provided.
    關聯: 應用經濟論叢, 96, 1-30
    数据类型: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.3966/054696002014120096003
    DOI: 10.3966/054696002014120096003
    显示于类别:[選舉研究中心] 期刊論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    05469600.pdf1652KbAdobe PDF21016检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈