政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/75249

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | Items with full text/Total items : 113392/144379 (79%)
Visitors : 51151975 Online Users : 261

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer

政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 地政學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/75249

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/75249

Title:	A prediction model for housing investment probability
Authors:	Chiou, Y.-S.;Chou, M.-L.;Chang, Chin-Oh 張金鶚
Contributors:	地政系
Keywords:	Homebuyer`s behavior;Housing investor;Probability prediction model
Date:	2013-06
Issue Date:	2015-05-21 16:49:05 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	This study investigates the government-conducted "Housing Demand Survey" from 2006Q4 to 2007Q3 to establish a binary logit model to analyze the housing attributes, search behaviors, and investors and owner-occupiers` personal characteristics for financial institutions prediction in determining house buyer motivation and reducing the loss incurred when payment is not advanced or is defaulted. The empirical results show that the locations, prices, sizes, and types of houses are the dominant factors affecting investment probability. Investors tend to select houses located downtown with high unit prices and small in size. They also tend to buy pre-sale, resold, and auction houses. The individual attributes of buyers, such as gender, age, occupation, and income, also play an important role in investment decisions. The proposed model has the highest prediction accuracy when the probability cutoff point is 0.7 and the investors` hit rate is 65.52% in contrast to the owneroccupiers` 84.51%, as indicated by the out-sample test. This study also determines that financial institutions incur the least loss with a cutoff point of 0.7 under different weights, when payment is not advanced or is defaulted.
Relation:	NTU Management Review, 23(2), 1-28
Data Type:	article
DOI 連結:	http://dx.doi.org/10.6226/NTURM2013.JUN.R10018
DOI:	10.6226/NTURM2013.JUN.R10018
Appears in Collections:	[地政學系] 期刊論文

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
1-28.pdf		2484Kb	Adobe PDF2	819	View/Open

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

Loading...