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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/76246

    Title: 台灣經濟成長率與其組成因子之預測績效評估
    The Forecast Performance of GDP and GDP components
    Authors: 陳建安
    Contributors: 徐士勛
    Keywords: 預測評估
    Date: 2014
    Issue Date: 2015-07-01 14:59:46 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本篇論文以 Sinclair and Stekler (2013) 作為基本架構,以台灣主計總處每個二、五、八及十一月所發布新聞稿內的經濟成長作為研究對象,透過多個面向來探討檢驗主計總處所提供的經濟預測,本文除了探討經濟成長外,也一併探討其組成因子,並在最後
    Reference: 梁國源、周大森 (2002),「臺灣經濟預測引用國際數據之檢視─以WEFA、 IMF 與 OECD 為例」,《臺灣經濟預測與政策》,33(1),41-74。
    徐士勛,管中閔與羅雅惠 (2005), 「以擴散指標為基礎之總體經濟預測」,《臺灣經濟預測與政策》, 36(1), 1–28。

    陳宜廷,徐士勛,劉瑞文與莊額嘉 (2011),「經濟成長率預測之評估與更新」, 《經濟論文叢刊》,39(1), 1-44。 [Chen, Y.-T., S.-H. Hsu, R.-W. Liou, and O.-C. Chuang (2011),“Evaluating and Updating Economic Growth Rate Forecasts,” Taiwan Economic Review,39(1), 1-44.]

    Aruoba, S. B. (2008). Data revisions are not well ehaved. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, 40, 319–340.

    Capistran, Carlos and Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma. 2010. Forecast Revisions of Mexican Inflation and GDP Growth. Working Paper 2010-11, Banco de Mexico.

    Faust, J., Rogers, J. H., \& Wright, J. H. (2005). News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37(3), 403-419.

    Joutz, F. L., \& Stekler, H. O. (1998). Data revisions and forecasting. Applied Economics, 30, 1011–1016.

    Mankiw, N. G., Runkle, D. E., \& Shapiro, M. D. (1984). Are preliminary announcements of the money stock rational forecasts? Journal of Monetary Economics, 14, 15-27.

    Mankiw, N. G., \& Shapiro, M. D. (1986). News or noise: an analysis of GNP revisions. Survey of Current Business, 66(May), 20-25.

    Mincer, J., \& Zarnowitz, V. (1969). The evaluation of economic forecasts. In J. Mincer (Ed.), Economic forecasts and expectations. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.

    Morgenstern, O. (1963). On the accuracy of economic observations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Sinclair, T. M., Gamber, E. N., Stekler, H., and Reid, E. (2012). Jointly evaluating the federal reserve forecasts of gdp growth and inflation. International Journal of
    Forecasting, 28(2):309-314.

    Sinclair, Tara M. and Herman O. Stekler (2013), Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates, International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29 (4),

    Stekler, H. O. (1967). Data revisions and economic forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, 470-483.

    Zellner, A. (1958). A statistical analysis of provisional estimates of gross national product and its components, of selected national income components, and of personal saving. Journal of the American Statistical
    Association, 53, 54-65.
    Description: 碩士
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258027
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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