数据加载中.....
|
请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77900
|
| 题名: | 關稅訊息的總體效果
Macroeconomic Effects of News on Tariff |
| 作者: | 劉至誠
Liu, Chih Cheng |
| 贡献者: | 黃俞寧
Hwang, Yu Ning
劉至誠
Liu, Chih Cheng |
| 关键词: | 關稅
訊息
動態隨機一般化均衡
小型開放經濟
價個僵固
Tariff
News
DSGE
Small open economy
Nominal rigidity |
| 日期: | 2015 |
| 上传时间: | 2015-08-24 10:22:49 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本文建構一個小型開放的經濟體系，價格具有僵固性的 DSGE 模型來探討提早釋出的關稅調降訊息所造成總體經濟面的影響。在政府簽訂貿易協定來降低關稅的訊息藉由媒體釋出時，同時民眾具理性預期的假設下，家計單位會因這樣的訊息而改變對未來的預期，在關稅還未實際調降時便改變行為決策。我們研究在不同的協商可能結果: (1)談判破裂，貿易協定未如預期簽訂。(2)談判成功，但貿易協定簽訂的結果比當初訊息所透露的降得更多或較少。(3)談判成功，並完全實現當初訊息的內容。(4)簽訂的時間高於預期，導致實行的時間延期。從結果中我們發現，提早釋出的關稅訊息會抑制民眾的消費和投資，在短期會立即造成需求面的負向衝擊。而降低關稅所帶來的市場活絡，會等到真正調降的時後才出現。所以越早釋出關稅調降的訊息，會造成經濟體系所需付出“等待政策實行的成本”越大。
There is global trend of economic integration across the world by removing the trade barrier. While the free trade agreements normally include the tariff reduction, the negotiations of the agreement may take a long time, and in some cases, the negotiation may fail. Therefore, the tariff reduction’s effects on the economy can be different if it is realized as expectation or not. With a small open economy DSGE model, this paper examines the effects of news preannouncement on tariffs. With the assumption of rational expectation, households will change their expectation when the news of tariff decrement is preannounced. However, whether or not the news on tariffs can be realized as expectation will lead to different dynamics. In this study, we consider various plausible scenarios: (1) If negotiation fails, thus the news on tariff reduction is not realized (2) If negotiation succeeds, but the amount of actual decrement is more or less than people originally expected. (3) Negotiation succeeds and the content of news is fully
realized. (4) Negotiation succeeds, but it takes more time than expected to be realized, thus the policy implementation is postponed. Our study reveals that the news preannouncement restrains consumption and investment before the negotiation is completed, and leads to a negative impact on the economy in the short run. The benefits of the tariff decrement appear if the policy is
actually implemented as expected. However, the economy suffers more if the negotiation takes too much time after the news is released. |
| 參考文獻: | Brock, P. L., 1986. “Permanent and Temporary Tariff Reductions”. Unpublished Working Paper.
Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2006. “Stock prices, news, and economic fluctuations”. The American Economic Review, Vol.96, No. 4, pp.1293–1307.
Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2007. “When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings ? ”. Journal of Economic Theory, Vol.135, pp.458 – 477.
Calvo, G., 1983. “Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.12, pp.383–398.
Clarida, R., Gali, J. and Gertler, M., 1999. “The science of monetary policy: a new Keynesian perspective”. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, pp.1661–1707.
Eichengreen, B.J., 1981. “A dynamic model of tariffs, output, and employment under flexible exchange rate”. Journal of International Economics, Vol.11, pp.341–359.
Fender, J. and Yip, C., 2000. “Tariffs and exchange rate dynamics redux”. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 19, pp.633–655.
Fujiwara, I., Hirose, Y. and Shintani, M., 2011. “Can news be a major source of aggregate fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE approach”. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, Vol.43(1), pp.1(28).
Gali, J., Monacelli, T., 2000. “Optimal monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small
open economy”. Working Paper, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Boston College.
Ganelli, G., Tervala, J., 2015. “Value of WTO trade agreements in a New Keynesian Model”.
International Monetary Fund WP/15/37.
Guido L., 2011. “News and aggregate demand shocks”. Annual review of economic, pp.537–557.
Guo, J.T., Sirbu, A,I. and Weder, M., 2015. “News about aggregate demand and the business cycle”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.72, pp.83(14).
Hooper, P., Marquez, J., 1995. “Exchange rates, prices, and external adjustment in the United States and Japan”. In: Kenen, P. (Ed.), Understanding Interdependence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp.107–168.
Hwang, Y.N., Turnovsky, S.J., 2013. “Exchange rate pass-through and the effects of tariffs on economic performance and welfare”. Journal of International Money and Finance.
Jaimovich, N., Rebelo, S., 2009. “Can news about the future drive the business cycle?”. American Economic Review, Vol.99:4, pp.1097–1118.
Konan, D.E., Maskus, K.E., 2000. “Joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy: the case of Egypt”. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.61, pp.365–392.25
Lane, P and Milesi, F.G., 2001. “Long term capital movements”. Working Paper, Trinity
College Dublin and IMF. Lopez, S. D., 2000. Work in progress, Bank of Spain.
Martins, J., Scarpetta, S., Pilat, D., 1996. “Mark-up pricing, market structure and the business
cycle”. OECD Economic Studies, Vol 27, pp.71–105.
Mundell, R., 1961. “Flexible exchange rates and employment policy”. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol.27, pp.509–517.
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 1995. “Exchange rate dynamics redux”. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.103, pp.624-660.
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 2000.“New directions for stochastic open economy models”. Journal of International Economics, Vol.50, pp.117-153.
Wang. P., 2012. “Understanding expectation-driven fluctuations: a labor-market approach”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, No. 2-3
Pigou, A.C., (1926), “Industrial Fluctuations”, MacMillan, London.
Reitz, S., Slopek, Q.D., 2005. “Macroeconomic effects of tariffs: Insights from a New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model”. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik, Vol. 141 (2), pp.285–311.
Kollmann, R., 2001a. “The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation”. Journal of International
Economics, Vol.55, pp.243–262.
Kollmann, R., 2002. “Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.49, pp.989–1015.
Rotemberg, J., Woodford, M., 1997. “An optimization-based econometric framework for the evaluation of monetary policy”. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.12, pp.297–346.
Sen, P., Turnovsky, S.J., 1989. “Tariffs, capital accumulation, and the current account in a small open economy”. International Economic Review, Vol.30, pp.811–831.
Sims, C., 2000. “Second order accurate solution of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models”. Working paper, Economics Department, Princeton University.
Stéphane, A., Paul G. and Shen G., 2013. “Nominal rigidities, monetary policy and pigou cycles “. The Economic Journal, Vol.123, pp.455–473.
Taylor, J., 1993a. “Discretion versus policy rules in practice”. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, pp.195–214.
Taylor, J., 1993b. “Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy”. Norton, New York |
| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
102258038 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258038 |
| 数据类型: | thesis |
| 显示于类别: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
|
文件中的档案:
| 档案 |
大小 | 格式 | 浏览次数 |
|---|
| 803801.pdf | 1405Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 166 | 检视/开启 |
|
在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.
|
