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    Title: 華盛頓共識在巴西的實施 : 從卡多索到盧拉
    The Washington Consensus in Brazil : From Cardoso to Lula
    Authors: 吳健禎
    Wu, Chien Chen
    Contributors: 鄧中堅
    Teng, Chung Chian
    吳健禎
    Wu, Chien Chen
    Keywords: 巴西政治經濟
    新自由主義
    華盛頓共識
    卡多索
    盧拉
    黑奧計畫
    零饑餓計畫
    politics and economic in Brazil
    Neoliberalism
    Washington Consensus
    Cardoso
    Lula
    Plano Real
    Forme Zero
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2015-11-02 14:57:53 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文係由歷史結構之觀點,透過時空發展的進程探討華盛頓共識進入巴西後於卡多索與盧拉兩任總統任內(1995年至2011年) 政治經濟、財政金融、社會政策的一系列發展與變革。
    隨著1970年代兩次石油危機的重擊,過去習以保護主義與進口替代作為玻璃帷幕的拉丁美洲終於破碎。因為凱因斯主義失靈重返舞台的新自由主義,挾著在東亞地區的成功經驗,讓拉美國家也服下「華盛頓共識」這枚靈丹妙藥,儘管有效的降低通貨膨脹、財政樽節、促成私有化、強化出口,惟過猛的力道及未妥善的因應措施終使拉丁美洲這個百年機器難以應荷,隨之帶來混亂與抗爭。這股亂流也衝擊南美的巴西,使該國深陷恐慌。1994年接任財政部長的卡多索企圖透過「黑奧計畫」改善巴西的政府人事、赤字、貨幣、通膨、私有化等問題,並於就任總統後持續強化計畫的執行。惟該計畫仍難完全解決巴西多年來的弱勢經濟,1997年後的區域性金融危機及國內債務問題將巴西推入深淵,儘管情勢好轉,但巴西必須更加依賴新自由主義。
    繼任者盧拉歷經三次總統競選失利,選擇與華盛頓共識合作並繼承黑奧計畫,厲行樽節。迥於其他拉美國家,盧拉利用樽節、私有化後的盈餘支援社會福利政策,推行「零饑餓計畫」,有效改善國內的就業率、教育、貧寒等問題,並使巴西經濟快速增長,締造黃金十年,並成為全球的重要經濟體。
    新自由主義學者向來排斥社會福利政策,盧拉的經驗則為新自由主義與社會福利相容相合提出可能性,這也是本文最重要的研究結果。卡多索和盧拉並未因為自身的左派色彩而採取反新自由主義政策,反而因勢利導,利用華盛頓共識打造更良善的經濟與社會環境,引領巴西走上繁榮的道路。
    Reference: 一、中文書目

    (一) 專書

    江時學等,拉美與東亞發展模式比較研究(北京:世界知識出版社,2001年)
    林志懋譯,Fernando Henrique Cardoso著,巴西,如斯壯麗–傳奇總統卡多索回憶錄 (臺北:早安財經文化,2010)
    崔毅,一本書讀懂美國史(中國湖南省:金城出版社,2014)
    劉文龍、朱鴻博,全球化、民族主義與拉丁美洲思想文化(上海:上海世紀出版股份有限公司,2013)
    鄭安潔譯,Larry Rohter著,巴西,未來之國(臺北:高寶出版,2011)
    羅飛飛譯,Werner Baer著,巴西經濟增長與發展(第七版)(北京:石油工業出版 社,2014)
    José Graziano da Silva主編,零饑餓計畫:巴西的經驗(中文版) (羅馬:聯合國糧 食及農業組織,2013年)

    (二) 書籍專章

    鄧中堅,「論拉丁美洲經濟發展」,收於向駿主編,拉丁美洲研究(臺北,五南,2001年),頁123-144。

    (三) 期刊

    呂銀春,「雷亞爾計畫與巴西的反通貨膨脹」,拉丁美洲研究,第3期(1995), 頁15-20。
    李其慶,「全球化背景下的新自由主義」,馬克思主義與現實,第5期(2003),頁4-18。
    李罡,「拉美經濟改革理論基礎辨析–新自由主義經濟學與拉美經濟改革」,拉丁美洲研究,第30卷第六期(2008),頁39-45
    沈麗巍,「新經濟自由主義的理性解讀」,邊疆經濟與文化,第8期(2011),頁153-154。
    吳志華,「拉美經濟改革失誤的教訓」,拉丁美洲研究,第六期(2003),頁18-20
    周志偉,「淺析盧拉政府的零飢餓計畫」,拉丁美洲研究,第6期(2003年),頁51-54。
    郭元增,「盧拉—工人出身的巴西新總統」,當代世界,第11期(2002年),頁22-23。
    葉桂平,「拉美地區葡語國家的政府經濟改革 研究-以卡多佐總統當政時期巴西 公共行政及財政改革為例」,行政:澳門公共行政雜誌(澳門),第23卷總第90期(2010年第四期),頁905-917。
    韓琦,「簡論拉美新自由主義的演變」,拉丁美洲研究,第二期(2004),頁11-17。聶泉,「盧拉政府時期(2003-2010)的巴西經濟和社會政策初析」,拉丁美洲研究,第35卷第2期(2003年4月),頁24-30。
    譚雅玲,「巴西金融動盪的內外因素分西及前景判斷」,拉丁美洲研究,第3期 (1999),頁15-18。
    蘇振興,「改革與發展失調–對拉美國家經濟改革的整體評估」,拉丁美洲研究,第六期(2003),頁1-9。
    蘇振興,「新自由主義與拉丁美洲」,拉丁美洲研究,第二期(2004),頁4-7。
    蘇振興,「拉美左派崛起與左派政府的變革」,拉丁美洲研究,第29卷第六期(2007),頁3-8。
    蘇振興,「拉美經濟:在復甦路上蹣跚而行」,拉丁美洲研究(北京),第1期(2004年),頁1-4。

    (四) 學位論文

    張曉玲,「從經濟穩定計畫看巴西經濟改革︰1985-1996」,淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所碩士論文 (1999年)
    廖鴻達,「1990年代巴西經濟改革的政治經濟分析」,台灣大學政治學研究所碩士論文 (2000年)

    (五) 網路

    唐雅陵,「拉美成人文盲 巴西占近四成」,中央社,<http://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/201401300026-1.aspx>(2014年1月30日)
    「盧拉政府鼓勵建立國有企業」,中華人民共和國駐里約熱內盧總領事館經紀商 務室,<http://riodejaneiro.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/jmxw/200509/20050900461617.html>
    「零饑餓計畫:巴西的經驗」,聯合國糧食及農業組織,<http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3279c.pdf>

    二、外文書目

    (一) 專書

    Aloízio Mercadante, O Governo Lula e a Construção de um Brasil Mais Justo, (São Paulo:Fundação Perseu Abramo, 2010)
    Edwards, Todd L., Brazil : a global studies handbook (Santa Barbara, Calif. : ABC-CLIO, c2008)
    Eul Soo-pang, “Debt, Adjustment, and Democratic Cacophony in Brazil, ” in Debt and Democracy in Latin America, ed. Barbara Stallings and Robert Kaufman (London : Westview Press, 1989)
    Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Enzo Faletto, Dependency and development in Latin America, (Berkeley : University of California Press, 1979)
    Gilpin,Robert., Global political economy : understanding the international economic order (Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, 2001)
    Jean Grugel and Pía Riggirozzi., Governance after neoliberalism in Latin America (New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2009)
    Jeffry A. Frieden, Debt, Development, and Democracy: Modern Political Economy and Latin America, 1965-1985 (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1991)
    J. E. Stiglitz., Globalization and its Discontent (New York: W.W. Norton, 2002)
    J.E. Stiglitz, “The Post Washington Consensus,” From the Washington Consensus towards a new Global Governance (Barcelona: Foundation CIDOB and the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, September 2004)
    Joseph L. Love and Werner Baer., Brazil under Lula : economy, politics, and society under the worker-president(New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2009)
    Marx Karl, The Eighteenth Brumaire, (New York : International Publishers, 1963)
    Milton Friedman and Rose D. Friedman, Two Lucky People: Memoirs(Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1998)
    Richard Bourne., Lula of Brazil : the story so far (Berkeley, Calif. : University of California Press, c2008)
    Santiso, Javier., Latin America`s political economy of the possible : beyond good revolutionaries and free-marketeers (Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press, c2006)
    Social Security Department of International Labour Office., Bolsa Familia in Brazil: Context, concept and impacts (Geneva 2009)
    Skidmore, Thomas E. & Peter H. Smith, Modern Latin America, Fourth Edition(Stanford,CA: Stanford University Press,1992)
    Williamson, John., “What Washington Means by Policy Reform,” Latin American Adjustment: How much has happened?(Washington: Institute for International Economics 1990)

    (二) 書籍專文

    Ranis, Gustav, “Challenges and Opportunities Posed by Asia`s Superexporters:Implications for Manufactured Exports from Latin America,”in James L.Dietz., Latin America`s Economic Development (Boulder, Colorado:Lynne Rienner, 1981), pp. 169-178, Edited by James L. Dietz. Bouder, CO:Rienner, 1995
    Krueger, Anne O., “Government Failures in Development,” in Jeffry A Frieden, Michael Tomz , Manuel Jr. Pastor eds., Modern Political Economy And Latin America: Theory And Policy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press,2000.), pp. 10-17.

    (三) 期刊

    CEPAL /FAO, “La apertura económica y el desarrollo agrícola en América Latina y el Caribe” en Cuadernos de la CEPAL, no. 81. ( Publicado por CEPAL y Naciones Unidas. Santiago de Chile. ,1997) ,pp.1-61.
    David Fleischer, “The Cardoso Government`s Reform Agenda: A View from the National Congress, 1995-1998,” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, Vol. 40, No. 4(winter 1998), pp.119-136.
    Fernando Henrique Cardoso, “An Age of Citizenship,” Foreign Policy, Vol. 119, (summer 2000), p.40.
    Fernando Ferrari-Filho and Luiz Fernando de Paula, “The Legacy of the Real Plan and an Alternative Agenda for the Brazilian Economy,” Investigación Económica, Vol. LXII, No. 244(abril-junio, 2003), pp. 57-92.
    Guy Burton, “ Lula and Economic Development,” Global Affair, Issue 20 , via at〈http://www.globalaffairs.es/en/lula-and-economic-development/〉(18/6/2010)
    Jan Kregel, “The Discrete Charm of the Washington Consensus,” The Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 533, (2008) ,pp. 1-23.Website:〈http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_533.pdf〉
    Joseph Stiglitz., “More Instruments and Broader Goals: Moving toward the Post-Washington Consensus,” WIDER Annual Lecture, The World Bank Group (7 Jan., 1998), pp.1-15.
    Kenneth R. Maxwell, Nelson and David Rockefeller, “Lula`s Surprise,” Council on Foreign Relations, July 3, 2003.
    Lecio Morais and Alfredo Saad-Filho, “Lula and the Continuity of Neoliberalism in Brazil: Strategic Choice, Economic Imperative or Political Schizophrenia?,” Historical Materialism, Vol. 13-1 (March 2005), pp.3-32.
    Maria de Lourdes Rollemberg Mollo and Alfredo Saad-Filho.,”Neoliberal Economic Policies in Brazil (1994-2005): Cardoso, Lula and the Need for a Democratic Alternative,” New Political Economy, Vol. 11, no.1(2006), pp.100-123.
    Massimiliano Vatiero&quot;The Ordoliberal notion of market power: an institutionalist reassessment&quot;. European Competition Journal , Vol.6, No.3(2010), pp. 689–707.
    Morais, Lecio, Alfredo Saad Filho and Walter Coelho., “Financial Liberalism, Currency Instability and Crisis in Brazil : Another Plan Bites the Dust,” Capital & Class, No.68 (summer, 1999),pp.9-14.
    O’Neill, Jim., “Building Better Global Economic BRICs,” Goldman Sachs - Global Economics, Paper No: 66 (2001)
    Pedro H. G. Ferreira de Souza., “POVERTY, INEQUALITY AND SOCIAL POLICIES IN BRAZIL, 1995-2009,” IPC-IG Working Paper, No.87 (February, 2012), Website: 〈http://www.ipc-undp.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper87.pdf〉
    Rudiger Dornbusch, “AssociationThe New Classical Macroeconomics and Stabilization Policy,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 2, (1990), pp.143-147.
    Sarwat Jahan and Chris Papageorgiou,“What Is Monetarism?,” Finance & Development, Vol. 51, No. 1 (2014), pp. 38-39.
    William A. Niskanen and Stephen Moore ,“Supply Tax Cuts and the Truth About the Reagan Economic Record,” Cato Policy Analysis, No. 261(1996)
    Williamson, John., “From Reform Agenda - A short history of the Washington Consensus and suggestions for what to do next,” Finance & Development (September,2003) pp.10-13.
    Williamson, John., “A Short History of the Washington Consensus, ” paper presented at Foundation CIDOB conference held in Barcelona in September 2004, “From the Washington Consensus towards a new Global Governance(24/9/2004),pp.1-14.

    (四)研討會論文

    J.E.Stiglitz,“The Post Washington Consensus Consensus,” presented for Initiative for Policy Dialogue Working Paper Series-From the Washington Consensus Towards a New Global Governance (United States : University of Columbia, April 2007)

    (五)報紙

    Binyamin Appelbaum,“Economic Stimulus as the Election Nears? It’s Been Done Before”, New York Times, 11 September 2012

    (六)網路

    Alex Steffen, “Fome Zero,” World changing, < http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000168.html > (December 3, 2003)
    Banco Central do Brasil, <http://www.bcb.gov.br/pt-br/paginas/default.aspx>
    Conjuntura Econômica,〈http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumChannelId=402880811D8E34B9011D92CC23104342〉
    Christopher Minster, “Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil`s Progressive President,” About Education, <http:// latinamericanhistory.about.com/od/thehistoryofbrazil/p/09lula.htm >
    “Index of Economic Freedom,” Heritage Foundation, <http://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country-year >.
    Maceió, “The Americas: Targeting the poor; Social policy in Brazil,” The Economist, < http://www.economist.com/node/1994211 > (August 14, 2003)
    “Management and evaluation within the Plano Plurianual : institutionalization without impact?,” World Bank, <http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/11/12721217/management-evaluation-within-plano-plurianual-institutionalization-without-impact > (November 6, 2006)
    “Mensagem ao Congresso Nacional, Brasília: Presidência da República, 2002”, Oito Anos de Estabilidade, Desenvolvimento e Conquistas Sociais< http://www.planalto.gov.br/publica.htm.>, (November 12 2006)
    Michel De Vroey,“Microfoundations: a decisive dividing line between Keynesian and new classical macroeconomics?,”IDEAS, <https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvir/2010030.html#download>(May 2010).
    The Laffer Center, “Supply-side economics ,” www.laffercenter.com,<http://www.laffercenter.com/supply-side-economics/>
    Department of State, United States<http://www.state.gov/e/eb/ifd/2006/61964.htm>
    Cooper, Marc and Tim Frasca, “Lula’s Moment,” The Nation,<http://www.thenation.com/article/lulas-moment>(February 23, 2003)
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交研究所
    99253009
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992530091
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[外交學系] 學位論文

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