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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/81084

    Title: Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC’s New Economic Projections
    Authors: 荒井夏來
    Arai, Natsuki
    Contributors: 國貿系
    Keywords: FOMC;economic projections;forecast revisions;forecast efficiency;information rigidity
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2016-02-03 10:23:09 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Since 2007, FOMC policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next three years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable, I find that FOMC’s efficiency is generally accepted for inflation, but often rejected for real economic variables, notably for the unemployment rate. The rejection is due to the strong autocorrelation of revisions, which may reflect information rigidity of FOMC’s unemployment projections. The joint efficiency of the entire projection is accepted in most cases.
    Relation: Jounal of Money, Credit and Banking,
    Data Type: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2393665
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2393665
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 期刊論文

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