English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 112704/143671 (78%)
Visitors : 49749969      Online Users : 892
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/81574


    Title: 產業相依下的停電風險分析
    Risk Analysis of Interdependent Industries
    Authors: 林佩琪
    Contributors: 李慧琳
    林佩琪
    Keywords: 限制用電
    關鍵基礎產業
    需求面投入產出停轉模型
    線性規劃投入產出停轉模型
    風險分析
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2016-03-01 10:50:38 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 行政院國土安全辦公室(2010)於國家關鍵基礎設施防護計畫中,將我國的關鍵基礎設施分為8大部門。本研究將對此8大部門關鍵基礎建設進行經濟面的分析比較,將此8大部門關鍵基礎建設對應到產業關聯表中18個產業,應用需求面投入產出停轉模型比較各關鍵基礎產業對整體產業需求的依賴程度以及說明各關鍵基礎產業如何相互影響。此外,由於我國關鍵基礎防護優先順序第一者為能源,因此進一步以電力為代表能源,分析近年來因天然災害衝擊和產業需求增加而面臨供應不足且對整體產業需求依賴程度排名第一的電力及蒸汽產業,應用線性規劃投入產出停轉模型模擬在電力供應短缺之下,若同時考慮極小化整體經濟損失與民生基本需求的電力配置策略。在本研究中,維持民生基本需求是假設各關鍵基礎產業其最終需求變動不大於50%。
    需求面投入產出停轉模型是Leontief投入產出模型的線性轉換,主要透過分配係數進行衝擊的傳遞。若某關鍵基礎產業具有以下兩特性,當各產業投入需求皆減少10%,此關鍵基礎產業的停轉性則大,可藉此說明某關鍵基礎產業對整體產業需求的依賴程度:一、產出主要當作中間投入使用;二、為一集中分配型產業供應鏈的重要上游產業,即此產業供應鏈之產出分配集中,且主要下游產業產出皆主要當中間投入使用。其中依賴程度前三名依序為電力及蒸汽、自來水、石油化工原料。若細部分析各關鍵基礎產業停轉性的主要來源,可了解關鍵基礎產業間明顯的需求依賴關係。而在模擬電力供應不足時的電力配置策略方面,產品單位內含電力投入減少對整體經濟造成的停轉性越小者優先分擔供電缺口。其中若僅以極小化整體經濟損失為目標,將使部分關鍵基礎產業的最終需求完全無法被滿足,而加入維持民生基本需求的考量儘管會提高整體經濟損失且分擔供電缺口的產品增加,但與未進行電力配置的結果相比,仍有效減少42.5%的整體經濟損失,同時更貼近社會需求與期待。

    關鍵詞:限制用電、關鍵基礎產業、需求面投入產出停轉模型、線性規劃投入產出停轉模型、風險分析
    Reference: 行政院國土安全辦公室,2010。國家關鍵基礎設施安全防護(1/3) –風險管理、關鍵基礎設施安全防護計畫、資訊共享與分析平台,期末報告。台北:行政院國土安全辦公室。
    行政院國土安全辦公室,2012。國家關鍵基礎設施安全防護(3/3) –關鍵基礎設施安全防護計畫專業委外服務研究,期末報告。台北:行政院國土安全辦公室。
    國家災害防救科技中心,2012。關鍵基礎設施災害脆弱度評估與風險管理:災害衝擊評估方法I。台北:國家災害防救科技中心。
    曾思敏,2013。關鍵基礎設施相依性決策方法與分析。國立中央大學土木工程學系博士論文。
    行政院主計總處,2014。100年產業關聯表(166部門)。台北:行政院主計總處。
    台灣電力股份有限公司,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014。2007年永續發展報告書,2008年永續發展報告書,2009年永續發展報告書,2010年永續發展報告書,2011年永續發展報告書,2012年永續發展報告書,2013年永續發展報告書,2014年永續發展報告書。台北:台灣電力股份有限公司。

    Anderson, Christopher W., Santos, Joost R., & Haimes, Yacov Y. (2007). A Risk-based Input–Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout. Economic Systems Research, 19(2), 183-204.
    Crowther, Kenneth G., & Haimes, Yacov Y. (2005). Application of the inoperability input—output model (IIM) for systemic risk assessment and management of interdependent infrastructures. Systems Engineering, 8(4), 323-341.
    European Council. (2008). EC Council Directive 2008/EC/114. Available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2008:345:0075:0082:EN:PDF (accessed 29 May 2015).
    Ghosh, A. (1958). Input-output approach to an allocative system. Economica, 25(1), 58-64.
    Haimes, Y., & Jiang, P. (2001). Leontief-Based Model of Risk in Complex Interconnected Infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 7(1), 1-12.
    Haimes, Y., Horowitz, B., Lambert, J., Santos, J., Lian, C., & Crowther, K. (2005). Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. I: Theory and Methodology. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 11(2), 67-79
    Haimes, Y., Horowitz, B., Lambert, J., Santos, J., Crowther, K., & Lian, C. (2005). Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. II: Case Studies. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 11(2), 80-92.
    Jiang, Pu, & Haimes, Yacov Y. (2004). Risk Management for Leontief-Based Interdependent Systems. Risk Analysis, 24(5), 1215-1229.
    Jonkeren, O., & Giannopoulos, G. (2014). Analysing critical infrastructure failure with a resilience inoperability input–output model. Economic Systems Research, 26(1), 39-59.
    Rose, Adam, Benavides, Juan, Chang, Stephanie E., Szczesniak, Philip, & Lim, Dongsoon. (1997). The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake: Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions. Journal of Regional Science, 37(3), 437-458.
    Rinaldi, S. M., Peerenboom, J. P., & Kelly, T. K. (2001). Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. Control Systems, IEEE, 21(6), 11-25.
    Santos, Joost R., & Haimes, Yacov Y. (2004). Modeling the Demand Reduction Input-Output (I-O) Inoperability Due to Terrorism of Interconnected Infrastructures*. Risk Analysis, 24(6), 1437-1451.
    Santos, Joost R. (2006). Inoperability input-output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems. Systems Engineering, 9(1), 20-34.
    Santos, JoostR, Pagsuyoin, ShereeT, Herrera, LuciaC, Tan, RaymondR, & Yu, KristaD. (2014). Analysis of drought risk management strategies using dynamic inoperability input–output modeling and event tree analysis. Environment Systems and Decisions, 34(4), 492-506.
    Leontief, W. (1936). Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic System of the United States. Review of Economics and Statistics, 18(3), 105-25.
    Leontief, W. (1941). The Structure of the America Economy, 1919-1929. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press.
    Leung, M., Haimes, Y., & Santos, J. (2007). Supply- and Output-Side Extensions to the Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 13(4), 299-310.
    Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009).Input-output analysis: foundations and extensions. Cambridge University Press.
    Okuyama, Y., & Chang, S. E. (Eds.). (2004). Modeling spatial and economic impacts of disasters. Springer.
    U.S. Government Publishing Office. (2001) UNITING AND STRENGTHENING AMERICA BY PROVIDING APPROPRIATE TOOLS REQUIRED TO INTERCEPT AND OBSTRUCT TERRORISM (USA PATRIOT ACT) ACT OF 2001
    Yu, Krista Danielle S., Tan, Raymond R., Aviso, Kathleen B., Promentilla, Michael Angelo B., & Santos, Joost R. (2014). A VULNERABILITY INDEX FOR POST-DISASTER KEY SECTOR PRIORITIZATION. Economic Systems Research, 26(1), 81-97.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    102258015
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258015
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File SizeFormat
    index.html0KbHTML2297View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback