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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 地政學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/8562

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Title:	房地產景氣對生產時間落差之影響
Authors:	彭建文;張金鶚;林恩從
Keywords:	生產時間落差;房地產景氣;建照面積;使照面積;共積檢定 Construction lags;Real estate cycles;Building permits;Usage permits;Cointegrartion tests
Date:	1998-12
Issue Date:	2008-11-18 09:03:00 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	"生產時間落差會影響房地產景氣循環；反之，房地產景氣是否會影響生產時間落差的長短？而在政府政策衝擊下，其影響又是如何？本文以建造執照面積與使用執照面積兩者數量上的波動關係，來衡量生產時間落差現象。研究結果指出，使照面積與建照面積間存在穩定的長期關係，但建照可能因景氣不佳而取消，使得長期建照面積可能大於使照面積。而建商會視房地產景氣變動而調整興建速度。當房地產景氣時，興建速度較快，不景氣時興建速度較慢，使得生產時間落差會因房地產景氣變動而有所不同。另外，建照面積與使照面積間的關係會因政府相關政策的改變而產生衝擊，此亦將改變生產時間落差的長短。" This paper explores the influence of real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations in building permits and usage permits as measured by total floor area. Results support the hypothesis that a long-run equilibrium exists between building and usage; however, building permits issued may fall during a downswing in the market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in real estate cycles and by the impact of government policies. When the market is strong, the duration of construction lags shortens and the duration is extended when the market is depressed.
Relation:	台大經濟論文叢刊, 26(4), 409-429
Data Type:	article
Appears in Collections:	[地政學系] 期刊論文

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