| 參考文獻: | Adam, J. K. ,&Adams, P.A.(1961).Realism of confidence judgments. Psycholoical Review,68,33-45.
Adam,P.A. ,&Adams,J.K.(1958). Training in confidence judgments. American Journal of Psychology,1985,71,747-751.
Allwood, C. M. ,&Montgomery,H.(1987). Response selection strategies and realism of confidence judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Proce-sses,39,365-383.
Arkes,H. R. , Christensen,C. , Lai,C., &Blumer,C.(1987). Two methods of reducing overconfidence. Organi-zational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,39,133-144.
Axel,C. S. ,&Holstein,S.(1972). Probabilistic forecasting : An experiment related to the stock market. Organ-izational Behavior and Human Performance,8,139-158.
Brier,G. W.(1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability.Monthly Weather Review,75,1-3.
Brown,T. A. ,&Shufors,E. H. (1973). Quantifying uncertainty into numerical probabilities for the reporting of intelligence(Report R-1185-ARPA). Santa Monica: The RAND Corp.
Brunswik,E.(1943). Qrganismic achievement and environ-mental prabability.The Psychological Review,50,255-272.
Brunswik,E.(1964). Scope and as pects of the cognitive problem. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp.4-31). Cambrige,MA: Harvard University Press.
Brunswik,E.(1955). Symposium on the probability approch in psychology: Representative design and probabilis-tic theory in a functional psychology.Psychological Review,62,193-217.
Choo,G.T.G(1976).Training and generalization in asse-ssment probabilities for Organisation and Social Studies.
Dawes,R. M, (1980). Confidence in intellectual judgmentsvs. Confidence in perceptual judgments. In: E. D. Lant-ermann and H. Feger(Eds.),Similarity and cholice. Vienna: Hans Huber.
Einhorn,H. ,&Hogarth,R.M.(1978). Confidence in judgment : Persistence of the illusion of validity.Psychologi-cal review,85,395-416.
Fischhoff,B.(1982). Debiasing. In D.Kahneman,P.Slovic,& A. Tversky(Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty : Heu-ristics and biases(pp.422-444). New York: Cambrige University. Press.
Fischhoff,B. ,Slovic,P.(1980). A little learning...: Confidence in multicue judgment. In R. Nickers on (Ed.),Attention and Performance VI II.Hillsdale, N. J.:Erlbaum.
Fischhoff,B., Slovic,p.,&Lichtenstein,S.(1977).Know-ing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology,3,552-564.
Gigerenzer,G.,Hoffrage, U.,&Kleinbolting,H.(1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psycological Review,48,506-528.
Griffin,D. G. ,&Tversky,A.(1992). The weighting of e-vidence and the determinants of confidence. Cog-nitive Psychology,24,411-435.
Kahneman,D. ,&Tversky, A.(1972). Subjective probablity: A judgment of representativeness. Cogntive Psy-chology, 3,430-454.
Kahneman,D. ,&Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review,80,237-251.
Keren,G.(1987). Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study. Organizeational Be-havior and Human Decision Processes,39,98-114.
Keren,G.(1988). On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knoweledge:Some calibration studies. Acta Psychologica,67,95-119.
Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1980). Rea-sons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psy-chology: Human Learning and Memory,6,107-118.
La Rochefoucauld,F.(1959). The maxims of La Rochefou-cauld(L. Kronenberger. Trans.). New York: Random House.
Li chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1977).Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?. Or-ganizational Behavior and Human Performance,20,159-183.
Li chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1980a). How well do pro-bability experts assess probability?(Decision re-search of Report 80-5). Eugent, Oreg.:Decision Re-search.
Li chtenstein,S.,&Fischoff,B.(1980b). Training for cal-ibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Perfor-mance,26,149-171.
Li chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1981). The effects of gender and instructions on calibration(Decision Research Report 81-5). Eugent, Oreg.: Decision Re-search.
Li chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.&Phillips,L.D.(1982). Calibration of probability: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman,P. Slovic,&A. Tversty(Eds.),Judg-ment under uncertainty: Heuristics and bias(pp. 306-334). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mayseless,O.,&Kruglanski, A. W.(1987). What makes your so sure?Effects of epistemic motivation on judgmental confidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Deci-sion Process,39,162-183.
Murphy,A.H.(1973). A new vector partition of the pro-bability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology,12,595-600.
Murphy,A.H.,&Winkler, R.L.(1971). Forecasters and pro-bability forecasts: some current problem. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Socity,52,239-247.
Oskamp,S.(1962). How clinicians make decisions from MMPI : An empirical study. Paper presented at the American Psychology Association, St. Louis.
Oskamp,S.(1965). Overconfidence in case-studey judgments. The Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261-265.
Phillips,L.D.,&Edward,W. (1966). Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. Journal of Experimental Psychology,72,345-354.
Pitz,G.F.(1974). Subjective probability distribution for imperfectly knwo quantities. In L. W. Gregg(Ed.),Know-ledge and cognition. New York: Wiley.
Reed,S.K. (1972). Pattern recognition and categoriza-tion. Cognitive Psychology,3,382-407.
Ronis, D. L. , &Yetes,J.F.(1987). Components of probabi-lity judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method. Organizational Behavior and Decision Pro-cesses,40,193-218.
Sieber,J.E.(1974). Effects of decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncer-tainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psycho-logy,30,688-694.
Slovic,P.(1972). From Shakespeare to Simon: Specula-tions-and some evidence-about man’s ability to process information. Oregon Research Institute Monography,12,2.
Taylor,S.E.,&Brown,J.D.(1988). Illusion and well-being :A social psychology perspective on mental health. Psychological Bulletin,103,193-210.
Tversky,A.,&Kahneman,D.(1973). Availability: a heuri-stic for judging frequencey and probability. Cog-nitive Psychology,5,207-232.
Tversky, A.,&Kahneman,D.(1974). Judgment under uncer-tainy: Heuristic and Biases. Science,185,1124-1131.
Wright,G.(1982). Changes in the realism and distribu-tion of probability assessments as a function of question type. Acta Psychologica,52,165-174.
Wright,G.,&Phillips,L.D.(1976). Personality and proba-bilistic thinking: An experimental study(Tech. Rep. 76-3). Uxbrige, England: Brunel Institute of Organisa-tional and Social Studies.
Wright,G.,Phillips,L.D.,Whalley,P.C.,Choo,G.T.T.,Ng, K.o.,Tan,I.,&Wisudha,A.(1978). Culture differences in probabilistic thinking. Journal of Cross-cultural Psychology,9,285-299.
Wright, G. N. ,&Wisudha, A.(1982).Distributionof proba-bility assessments for almanac and future event questions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,23,219-224.
Yates,J.F.(1990). Judgment and Decision Making. Engle-wood Cliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall.
Yates,J.F.,Lee,J.W.,Shinotsuka,H.,Yen,N.S.,Singh,R.,Onglatco, M.L.U.,Gupta,M.,&Bhatnagar,D.(1991). The origins of Asian versus Western difference in pro-bability judgment accuracy patterns. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Social for Judgment and Decision Making. San Francisco, CA, U. S. A. |
