| Reference:  | 一、中文部份
 1.方世杰(1988),市場預測方法一百種,台北,書泉出版社。
 2.行政院主計處(各季份),國民經濟動向統計速報。
 3.朱健萍(1984),「時間數列模型建立分析應用之研究」,未出版碩士論文,政治大學統計研究所。
 4.周文賢(1990),時間序列分析未出版之課堂講議,政治大學統計研究所。
 5.林茂文(1986),時間序列分析與預測,第二版,台北,華泰書局
 6.郭明哲(1985),預測方法──理論與實例,第七版,台北,中興管理顧問公司。
 7.彭春花(1988),「台灣地區耐久財擴散模式之探討──家電產品之實例」,未出版碩士論文,淡江大學管理科學研究所。
 8.經濟部統計處(各月份),國內經濟指標統計速報。
 
 一、英文部份
 1. Bass ,F. M. (1969) , "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables" , Management Science , vol. 15 , PP. 215 -227.
 2. Bayus , B.L. (1987) , "Forecasting Sales of New Contingent Products An Application to the Compact Disc Market", Journal of Product Innovation Management Vol. 4 , PP.243-255.
 3. Bowerman, B.L. and R.T. O`connell (1987) ,Time Series Forecasting , Boston : Duxbury , 2nd ed.
 4. Cryer , J.D. (1 987) , Time Seriers Analysis , Boston Duxbury. 
 5. Horsky , D. and L.S. Simon (1983) , "Advertising and the Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restrictions" , Marketing Science, Vol.10 , No.1 , PP. 83-90.
 6. Kalish , S. (1985) , "A New Product Adoption Model With Pricing , Advertising and Uncertainty" , Management Science, Vol. 31 , PP. 1569-1585.
 7.Kamakura, W.A. and S.K Balasubramanian(1987), “Long-Term Forecasting with Innovation Diffustion Models: The Implact of Replacement Purchase”,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 1, PP.1-19.
 8. Nelson , C.R. (1973) , Applied Time Series Analysis for Managerial Forecasting , San Francisco Holden-Day.
 9. Olson , J.A. and S.Choi (1985) , "A Product Diffusion Model Incorporating Repeat Purchases" , Technological Forecasting and Social Change , Vol. 27 , PP. 385-397.
 10. Peterson , R.A. and V. Mahajan (1987) , "Multi-Product Growth Models" , in Research in Marketing , J. Sheth , ed. Greenwich , CT JAI Press , Inc. PP. 201-231.
 11. Rogers , E. M. (1983) , Diffusion of Innovations , 3rd ed. New York The Free Press.
 12. SAS User`s Guides: ETS , Version 5 edition (1985) , Cary :SAS Institute Inc.
 13. Simon , H. and K.H. Sebastian (1987) , "Diffusion and Advertising The German Telephone Company" , Management Science , Vol. 33 , PP. 451-466.
 14. Vandaele , W. (1983) , Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, Academic Press,Inc. |