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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 會計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/90097
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/90097


    Title: 運用財務比率預測每股盈餘之研究
    Authors: 簡銘宏
    Contributors: 黃敏助
    簡銘宏
    Date: 1990
    1989
    Issue Date: 2016-05-03 14:13:46 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 論文提要
    吾人皆知,每股盈餘對投資人而言具有相當的重要性,因為每股盈餘可用來衡量股價的高低,以做為投資決策之參考。雖然我國証券市場目前正處於Agtmael所
    謂的「投機期」(Speculation)每股盈餘對股價之衡量似乎不具價值,但此乃一過渡現象,將來勢必歷經「整理(崩盤)期」(Consolidation (Crash))而達「成熟期」(Mature)。屆時,每股盈餘之分析將是投資決策最有用的工具之一。
    本研究之目的乃在於試圖為每股盈餘發展一預測模型,以便將來投資人做投資決策時之參考。但為顧及投資人取得預測資訊之便,乃利用我國企業公開說明書上
    所公佈的16個財務比率做分析,試圖尋找較具解釋能力之比率建立模型。因此本研究之貢獻除了幫助投資人做投資決策外,尚可証明會計人員所編製的財務報表,具有可用性。
    本研究架構,從問題之發生、認定,並經過文獻之探討後,決定以我國上市企業為樣本,並以公開說明書中有民國73年至75年之16個財務比率為準,共取得91家有完整之資料。首先將此16個財務比率做主成份分析(Component Analysis)抽取一組較少數的財務比率來建立預測模型,但為加強模型之預測能力,另外加入總體經濟指數及行業景氣指數於模型之中。待模型建立完成之後,再以保留樣本(hold-out sample)加以檢定該模型之預測能力。
    本論文共分五章,第一章緒論,其中分四節,分別就研究動機與目的,研究的範圍與限制,並就預期的貢獻加以介紹;第二章為文獻探討,共分四節,分別對每
    股盈餘預測,盈餘預測,公司淨利之研究及多變量分析加以探討;第三章為研究方法論,分四節加以敘述,先對每股盈餘加以定義,再對外在變數及樣本加以說明,並就財務比率加以介紹並予以設定,最後初步擬定預測模型;第四章為實証分析,共分為三節,分別為主成份分析及模型配適,並就結果加以分析與驗証;第五章則為本研究的結論及建議。
    最後為求進一步推展本研究之模型,乃將本研究之限制詳予說明,寄望後績之研究者能一一克服,使本預測模型達到完美之境。
    Reference: 參考文獻
    一、中文部分:
    1.石齊平、郭照榮「當代計量經濟學」(三民書局出版,民國七十六年元月二版)。
    2.林玩香編譯,「SAS使用手冊-高等統計篇」,(台北:儒林圖書公司,民國七十七年四月初版)。
    3.林清山,「多變量分析統計法」,(東華書局出版,民國七十七年九月五版)。
    4.黃敏助。「論銀行經營評鑑」,(基層金融出版社出版,民國七十五年十月)。
    5.陳肇榮。「運用財務比率預測企業危機之實証研究」,(民國七十四年政大企業管理研究所之博士論文)。
    6.葉金成。「股票上市優良與不優良企業財務特性之研究」,(民國六十七年,政大企業管理研究所之碩士論文)。
    7.張輝煌編譯,「多變量分析及其應用」,(台北:建興出版社,民國七十九年修訂版)。
    8.張輝煌編譯,「實用多變量分析」,(台北:建興出版社,民國七十八年四月出版)。
    9.鄭丁旺,「中級會計學」,上下冊,(台北:作者自印,民國七十六年十一月三版)。
    10.審計準則委員會,「審計準則公報第十二號」,(台北:中華民國財會計研究發展基金會,民國七十六年一月三十一日發布)。
    11.廖秀雲,「每股盈餘之研究」,(民國七十七年六月,政大會計研究所之碩士論文)
    12.原始資料來源:<1>各上市公司之年報及公開說明書,
    <2>經濟部統計處編印,「工業生產統計月報」,(民國七十九年一月出版)。

    二、英文部分:
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    Annual Earnings ,&quot; Journal Of Accounting Research (Autumn 1977).pp.226-244.
    2.APB Opinion No.15, &quot;Earning per share&quot;,New York: American Institude of Certified
    Public Accountants, May 1969).
    *3.Bain, J. S., Barriers to New Competition Harvard University Press,1956).
    4.Baker, S. H., &quot;Risk,Leverage,and Profitability:An Industrial Analysis,&quot; The Review
    of Economics and Statistics (November 1973) .pp.503-507.
    5.Ball, R. ,B. Lev and R. Watts, &quot; Income Variation and Balance Sheet Compositions,&quot;
    Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1976).pp.1-9.
    6.Beaver, W. , P. Kettler, and M. Scholes, &quot;The Association Between Market Determined
    and Accounting Determined Risk Measures,&quot;The Accounting Review (October 1970).pp.
    634-682.
    *7.Brealey, R. A. An Introduction to Risk and Return From Common Stocks (MIT Press,1969)
    8. Catto, V., &quot;Market Share and Profits,&quot;Bussiness Economics (May 1980).pp.39-44.
    9.Collins, N. L. and L. E. Preston, &quot;Price-Cost Margins and Industry Structure, &quot;
    Review of Economics and Statistics (August 1969) .pp.271-287.
    *10.Cyert, R. M. and J.G. March, A Behavioral Theory of the Firm (Prentice-Hall, 1963).
    *11.David A. Heenan and Robert B. Addleman, &quot;Quantitative Techniques for Today`s Decision Makers,&quot; (Prentice-Hall Press 1971).
    12.Eckel, N., &quot;An EPS Forecasting Model Utilizing Macroeconomic Performance Expectations, &quot;Financial Analysts Journal (May-June 1982).pp.68-77.
    13.Elton, E. J. and M. J. Gruber, &quot; Improved Forecasting Through Design of Homogeneous
    Groups, &quot; The Journal of-Business (July 1971 ).pp.432-450.
    14.Gupta, M. C., &quot;The Effect of Size, Growth,and Industry on The Financial Structure of
    Manufacturing Companies, &quot;The Journal of Finance (June 1969).pp.517-529.
    15.Hurdle, G. J., &quot;Leverage,Risk,Market Structure and Profitability, &quot; The Review of
    Economics and Statistics(November 1974).pp.478-485.
    *16.Kerlinger, F. N., Foundation of Behavioral Research 2nd.ed.(Holt,Rinehart and Winston,1973).
    *17.Kwoka, J. E., Jr., U.S. Federal Trade Commission Staff Report on Market Shares, Concentration,and Competition in Manufacturing Industries (U.S. Government Printing
    Office,1978)
    18.Leopold A. Berstein, &quot;Financial Statement Analysis:Theory, Application,and Interpretation,&quot;Third Edition.
    19.Lev, B. , &quot;On the Use of Index Models in Analytical Reviews By Auditors, &quot; Journal
    of Accounting Research (Autumn 1980).pp.524-550.
    20.-------, &quot; Some Economic Determinations of Time-Series Properties of Earnings,&quot; Journal of Accounting and Economics(April 1983) .pp.31-48.
    *21.Little, I. M. F. and A. C. Ranor, Higgledy Piggledy Growth Again (Basil Blackwell,
    1966) .
    22.Martin, a., &quot;An Empirical Test of The Relevance of Accounting Information for Investment Decisions,&quot; Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement 1971).pp.1-31.
    23.Marx, T. G. ,&quot;Concentration and the Profits of Leading Firms:Implications for Monopoly and Efficiency,&quot; Business Economics.(September 1979).pp.23-29.
    *24.Pinches, George E., Arthur A.Eubank, Kent A. Mingo, and J. Kent Caruther.&quot;The Hierarchical Classification of Financial Ratios&quot; Journal of -Business Research (October 1975),pp.295-310.
    25.Roenfeldt, R. L. and P. L. Cooley.&quot;Predicting Corporate Profitability for Investment
    Selection &quot; Journal of Business Finance & Accounting (Spring 1978). pp. 57-63.
    26.Schroeder & McCullers & Clark, &quot; Accounting Theory, Text and Reading&quot; , Third Edition.
    *27.Shepherd, W.G., Market Power Economic Welfare:An Introduction (Random House 1970).
    *28.Shimerda, T.A., &quot;Financial Ratios As Predictors of Profitability, &quot; PH.D. dissertation,
    university of Nebraska, 1978, ( Microfilms,No.7910516).
    29.Wetts, R.L. and R.W. Lettcoich, &quot;The TimeSeries of Annual Accounting Earnings,&quot; Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1977).pp.253-271.
    30.Williams, W.h., and M.L. Goodman, &quot;A Statistical Grouping of Corporations By Their
    Financial Characteristics,&quot;Journal of Financial and Quantative Analysis (September 1971).pp.1095-1104.
    31.Yang-tzong Tsay, &quot;On The Relationship Between Accounting Earnings And Accounting Rations,&quot;(September 1989).
    *表示作者未直接參閱
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    會計學系
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002005430
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[會計學系] 學位論文

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