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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/95330


    Title: 氣候變遷對全球糧食價格、生產及福利變動的影響分析-全球可計算一般均衡模型之應用
    Authors: 鄭孟庭
    Contributors: 李慧琳
    鄭孟庭
    Keywords: 氣候變遷
    可計算一般均衡分析
    土地利用
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2016-05-09 15:42:18 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 氣候變遷對農業生產影響甚鉅。近年來全球持續暖化,使得各地區發生了極端的氣候變化事件,例如:2007年摩洛哥及英國發生嚴重的水災,然而在加拿大東南部、歐洲東南部、澳洲與南非卻成了無比的乾旱地帶;2008年中國的雪災與旱災等,均使得當地農業生產量大幅銳減。全球暖化會帶來農作物生產力的變化,進而影響糧食的供給。另一方面,近年來隨著全球經濟的快速成長,人口持續增加,使得糧食需求大幅成長。糧食的供需與糧食價格一直是全球各國關注的焦點,因此,本研究應用全球貿易一般均衡分析模型(Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP)及其第六版資料庫,並利用加入農業生態區(Agro-Ecological Zoning)後的GTAP土地利用模型,模擬在IPCC SRES之A2情境下,到2020年時氣候變遷對全球糧食作物的生產、價格、土地利用與福利的影響。
    本研究模擬結果顯示:(1)氣候變遷使得主要糧食作物:稻米、小麥、油脂作物的世界價格皆小幅上漲,而其他穀類作物價格上漲較多,最主要是因為在世界大多數地區的其他穀類作物生產力皆受到全球暖化負面的衝擊。另一方面,由於其他穀類作物是畜牧業的主要投入生產要素之一,所以畜牧產品的世界價格也隨之上漲;(2)在世界糧食生產方面,氣候變遷對世界稻米、小麥、油脂作物與其他穀類作物的產出影響皆不大;(3)在福利變動方面,大體而言,地處高緯度的已開發國家大多因氣候變遷而得利,位於中低緯度的開發中國家則因氣候變遷而受害。而且,地處高緯度的中歐、東歐與前蘇聯卻是世界所有國家中,福利下降最多的地區,最主要是其地區的農作物受到相當負面的影響所致。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    96258025
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0962580251
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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