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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/95491
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/95491


    Title: 以條件拔靴法估計VaR之探討
    Authors: 賴信宏
    Contributors: 翁久幸
    賴信宏
    Keywords: 風險值
    拔靴法
    厚尾高峰
    異質變異
    GARCH
    GARCH Bootstrap
    Date: 2002
    Issue Date: 2016-05-09 16:23:40 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   關於風險值之估計,拔靴法因直接以市場資料為抽樣分配,計算時便包含一般財務時間序列所常有的厚尾高峰等現象,避免模型偏誤(Model Risk)。但市場上的波動因具有異質變異,易產生波動聚集現象(Volatility Clustering),是以歷史資料無法立即反應波動之起伏與及時之資訊,一般VaR估計模型往往在波動較劇烈起伏處,無法準確估計風險值,因而提高市場風險。
      針對於此,此次研究嘗試以GARCH模型捕捉波動起伏,並運用拔靴法估計之便捷與優點,估計更可靠之風險值(簡稱GARCH Bootstrap)。研究所得之主要結論如下:
      1.拔靴法(Bootstrap)以及偏誤修正之拔靴法(Bias-Corrected Bootstrap)在厚尾及常態之下,皆比歷史模擬法有較佳之估計。但實證資料因厚尾情形不足,三者之VaR估計,並無顯著差異。
      2.拔靴法及偏誤修正之拔靴法於模擬中有較大之差距,實證下則較小,應為實證資料厚尾情形較輕微所致。
      3.模擬中,在GARCH模型之配適上,選擇樣本大小(或窗口大小)為250日或500日皆為條件之估計較佳。但實證上,250日的資料仍嫌不足,在計算參數時會有不收斂而無法得其結果。建議在窗口選擇上應至少為500日。
      4.在資料本身具有GARCH現象時,GARCH Bootstrap會較Bootstrap為佳。
    Reference: 一、國外部份
    1.Alexander, C. O. and Leigh, C. T., 1997. "On the Covariance Matrics Used in Value at Risk Models," The Journal of Derivatives. Vol:4 Number3, pp.50-62.
    2.Bollerslev,T., 1986. "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Hetero-scedasticity", Journal of Econometrics, V31, pp.307-327.
    3.Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos K. and Vosper L., 1999 "VaR Without Correlations for Portfolios of Derivative Securities", Journal of Futures Markets 19 (April), pp.583-602.
    4.Duffie, Darrell and Pan, Jun 1997. “An Overview of Value at Risk.” The Journal of Derivatives, spring, pp.7-49.
    5.Davidson, A.C. and Hinkley, D.V., 1997. Bootstrap Methods and their application, Cambridge University Press.
    6.Efron, B. and Tibshirane, R.J., 1993. An Introduction to Bootstrap,Chapman & Hall.
    7.Hendricks, D., 1996. "Evaluation of Value at Risk Models Using Historical Data", Economics Policy Review, pp.39-70.
    8.Hull, J. and White, A., 1998. "Incorporating Volatility Updating into the Historical Simulation Method for Value at Risk", Journal of Risk, Fall.
    9.McNeil, A. J. and Frey, R., 2000, "Estimation of Tail-Related Risk Measures for Heteroscedastic Financial Time Series: An Extreme Value Approach", Journal of Empirical Financial, Autumn.
    10.Jorion, P., 1997. "Value at risk: the new benchmark for controlling market risk”, The McGraw-Hill Companies. Inc. Publication.
    二、國內部份
    1.江義玄(2000),「投資組合之風險評價:新模擬方法的運用」,國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    2.李進生 等(2001),風險管理:風險值(VaR)理論與應用,台北:清蔚。
    3.張士杰(1999),「運用拔靴複製法構建VaR 估計量之分配」,銘傳大學金融研究所碩士論文。
    4.蒲建亨(2001),「整合VaR法之衡量與驗證~以台灣金融市場投資組合為例」,國立政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計學系
    88354004
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2010000393
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 學位論文

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