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| Title: | 台灣地區死亡率推估的實證方法之研究與相關年金問題之探討 |
| Authors: | 曾奕翔 |
| Contributors: | 余清祥
曾奕翔 |
| Keywords: | Mortality Improvement
Population Projection
Lee-Carter Method
Cross-validation
Simulation
Pure Premium
Annuity
1989 TSO |
| Date: | 2002 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-05-09 16:30:57 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | In Taiwan area, the mortality rates at all ages have decreased since the end of World War II, and the life expectancy of people has increased from 62 in 1950`s to 75 in 2000, which is an increase of 21%. The mortality improvement of the elderly (i.e. people ages 65 and over) is especially significant, which effects in the rapid population aging in Taiwan area. For example, the proportion of the elderly has increased from 6.14%in 1990 to 8.52% in 2000. On one hand, the prolonged life span for an individual means a longer period of retirement life and thus a larger retirement fund. On the other hand, a longer life for the government is equivalent to a more thorough social system for the elderly. Therefore, a reliable mortality rates projection is essential to both personal financial and social welfare planning.
In this study, we have two main objectives: First, we explore some frequent used models, such as Lee-Carter, multivariate regression and principal component methods. We use the data between 1950 to 1995 as the pilot data and 1996 to 2000 as the test data to judge which method has the smallest prediction error. In addition, based on computer simulation, we also evaluate the performance of the estimation methods for the Lee-Carter method. The second part (and the other objective) of this study is to explore the effect of mortality improvement on the pure premium of annuity insurance. In particular, we calculate the pure premium of the annuity under the best model acquired from the first part, and compare those under 1989 TSO and other life tables. We found that the pure premiums under current life tables are under estimated, which may cause the insolvency of insurance companies. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
89358011 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2010000317 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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