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| Title: | 債務困境與外交策略：中國對馬爾地夫與斯里蘭卡影響力的差異分析（2013-2024）
Debt Distress and Diplomatic Strategies: A Comparative Analysis of China’s Influence on the Maldives and Sri Lanka (2013-2024) |
| Authors: | 江典祐
Chiang, Tien-Yu |
| Contributors: | 薛健吾
Hsueh, Chien-Wu
江典祐
Chiang, Tien-Yu |
| Keywords: | 一帶一路
債務陷阱外交
中國對南亞影響力
政治經濟危機
Belt and Road Initiative
Debt-Trap Diplomacy
China–South Asia Relations
Political-economic Crisis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-06-02 14:52:42 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 中國作為全球最大的官方雙邊債權人，其對開發中國家的貸款模式引發「債務陷阱外交」的討論。本論文旨在探討中國於「一帶一路」倡議下，對馬爾地夫與斯里蘭卡兩國外交政策的影響，並試圖解釋兩國在相似的債務條件與政治經濟結構下，對中國態度卻呈現不同走向的原因。儘管兩國皆積欠中國一定比例的債務，在各項政治經濟條件方面高度相似，但近年來馬爾地夫與中國關係日益緊密，而斯里蘭卡則展現出更大的波動。本文的研究問題即為：在高度相似的條件下，為何兩國對中國的態度卻不盡相同？過往學者在解釋馬爾地夫、斯里蘭卡與中國和印度的關係時，以「經濟」、「領導人」、「歷史文化」、「宗教」、「債務陷阱」以及「民意」等因素作為切入點。本文認為，若要理解兩國對中國態度的變化，必須將「是否經歷重大政治經濟危機」此因素納入考量，本文不否定其他解釋變數的重要性，但認為「危機經驗」可針對現有的解釋進行補充。本文主張，斯里蘭卡在2022年爆發政治經濟危機，對其對外政策選擇產生關鍵影響。該國在債務違約、外匯枯竭與政治動盪的背景下，向國際社會求助，而「中國對於斯里蘭卡債務重組較為消極的態度」以及「印度對於斯里蘭卡的大力相助」使得斯里蘭卡認知到即便過往很配合中國，也無法獲得中國對於債務重組的積極協助，因此斯里蘭卡採取更為平衡的外交策略，對於中國的態度出現較大波動。相較而言，馬爾地夫則因為尚未有類似的政治經濟危機經驗，在中國龐大的經濟實力下，對於中國的態度較為穩定，基本上配合中國的利益。總結兩國的經驗，本文認為中國透過債務所建立的影響力似乎並不如許多分析所說的那樣穩固。
As the world’s largest official bilateral creditor, China’s lending model to developing countries has sparked extensive debate over “debt-trap diplomacy.” This thesis aims to explore the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the foreign policy choices of the Maldives and Sri Lanka, and seeks to explain why, under similar debt conditions and political-economic structures, the two countries have exhibited divergent attitudes toward China. Although both countries owe a significant proportion of debt to China and share highly similar political and economic characteristics, recent years have witnessed a steady deepening of Maldives–China relations, while Sri Lanka’s stance toward China has shown greater volatility. The research question of this thesis is: Why do the Maldives and Sri Lanka differ in their responses to China under highly similar conditions? Previous scholarship has often attributed variations in South Asian countries’ relations with China and India to factors such as economic dependency, leadership changes, historical and cultural ties, religion, debt-trap dynamics, and public opinion. While this study does not deny the importance of these variables, it argues that the experience of major political-economic crises should be incorporated as a supplementary factor in understanding the divergence. This thesis posits that Sri Lanka’s political-economic crisis in 2022 critically influenced its foreign policy decisions. Facing debt default, foreign exchange depletion, and political turmoil, Sri Lanka turned to the international community for assistance. During this process, China’s comparatively passive attitude toward Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring, contrasted with India’s active support, led Sri Lanka to realize that close alignment with China in the past did not guarantee strong support in times of need. Consequently, Sri Lanka adopted a more balanced diplomatic strategy, resulting in greater fluctuations in its approach to China. In contrast, the Maldives, having not experienced a comparable crisis, continues to maintain a relatively stable and cooperative posture toward China, largely aligning with Chinese interests under the influence of China’s considerable economic power. Summarizing the experiences of the two countries, this study suggests that China’s influence built through debt appears to be less stable than many analysts have suggested. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
111260011 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111260011 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究所] 學位論文
|
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| 001101.pdf | | 2651Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
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