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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158011
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| 題名: | 探索二十一世紀環境規劃新典範的行動研究—氣候變遷下之稻米生產、交易與虛擬水成本之關係(I)
Relation between Rice Production, Trade and Virtual Water Cost under Climatic Change Condition |
| 作者: | 林士淵;林俊德;吳治達 |
| 貢獻者: | 地政系 |
| 關鍵詞: | 水足跡;水資源管理;氣候變遷
Water footprint;water resource management;climate change |
| 日期: | 2018-01 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-07-14 11:10:33 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 氣候變遷、糧食安全、水資源管理及土地使用之永續利用等，皆為現今備受各領域關注之課題， 且彼此間息息相關、相互連動，如何能在因應氣候變遷影響之餘兼顧各層面之資源有效管理，為本計晝欲探討之議題。為達此目的，本計晝利用「水足跡」作為貫穿上述課題之指標，試圖從整體國 土利用角度，探討在極端氣候影響下，如何估算並利用藍水、綠水與灰水足跡以進行水資源管理。 除此之外，我們也注意到水資源管理與糧食安全之間的連結，因為當氣溫升高、降雨量與降雨型態 改變時，一方面除了直接造成未來水資源時空分佈之變異，增加水資源管理上的風險和困難之外， 另一方面則是打亂作物生長期，衝擊農業生產環境，使得作物產量不穩定，甚至導致糧食危機的發 生。因此，在確保糧食及水資源安全之永續發展目標下，本計晝首先將比較過去全臺灣各縣、市生 產主要糧食作物稻米所耗用之水成本，接著結合「氣候變遷預測模型」，模擬未來因應氣候變遷而改變的不同環境條件下，水資源分佈情況將會產生哪些不同之耗用情況；除了氣候變遷預測模型之外， 更同時利用未來人口成長趨勢，搭配「作物生產模型」，模擬未來各區域糧食需求狀況。最後，透過分析上述過去經驗數據及未來模擬成果，進一步權衡出在維持糧食安全之目標下，符合水資源利用效益最佳之最適生產稻米作物地區。預期此成果將會成為水與糧食鏈接之關鍵知識網絡中重要的環節，除可提升水資源利用之效率，以保護可能因氣候變遷而逐漸脆弱的水環境之外，更可回應糧食安全之風險程度，藉此為整體土地使用規劃提供永續性利用之參考，亦可作為未來政策研擬或調適之根據。
Water Footprint (WFP) is a recently developed indicator to identify the usage and distribution of the fresh water resource. It includes Blue, Green and Gray WFP, where Blue WFP is the volume of surface and groundwater consumed as a result of the production of a good. It is the amount of water abstracted from groundwater or surface water that does not return to the catchment from which it was withdrawn. Green WFP is referred to total rainwater evapotranspiration plus the amount of water incorporating in a product, and is the main indicator of contribution of water usage introduced in agricultural and forestry product. Gray WFP is defined as the volume of freshwater that is required to assimilate the load of pollutants based on natural background concentrations and existing ambient water quality standards. It is calculated as the volume of water that is required to dilute pollutants to such an extent that the quality of the water remains above agreed water quality standards. With the estimation of the total amount of the three types of WFP, the water consumed for any specific production can be realized. Based on this characteristic, we propose to use WFP as the indicator to evaluate food security issue, water resource management and land use policy under the climate change condition.
As rice is the main crop in Taiwan, it is selected as the target production in this research. At the first stage, the amount of Blue, Green and Gray WFPs, which is treated as virtual water cost, is estimated through collection of official data, the usage of remote sensing technique incorporating moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), and on-site water sampling and laboratory analysis respectively. Secondly, climate change modelling is introduced to simulate the change of precipitation, temperature, etc. in the future. Together with such change, we will investigate the amount of WFP changed accordingly. Meanwhile the amount of demand and production of rice of each city/county are collected to determine its level of excess of supply. In addition we also predict the change of demand of rice of each city/county within the same time scale. At last, all information is imported into a dynamic model to simulate the local and global production amount of rice. The final results are expected to be considered for the optimal water resource management for rice cropping and also for making policies regarding food security and land use. |
| 關聯: | 科技部, MOST105-2621-M004-008, 105.08-106.07 |
| 資料類型: | report |
| 顯示於類別: | [地政學系] 國科會研究計畫
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