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    題名: 生產彈性由來及需求不確性市場；以電子代工業為例
    Production Flexibility and Uncertain Demand: Case of Electronic Manufacturing Services Industry
    作者: 李文傑;王信實
    貢獻者: 經濟系
    關鍵詞: 生產彈性;電子代工;需求不確定;擬真分析;模型校正;紅色供應鏈
    production flexibility;electronic manufacturing service (EMS);demand uncertainty;counterfactual analysis;Red Supply Chain
    日期: 2017-10
    上傳時間: 2025-07-16 11:13:40 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 目前既有的文獻在探討廠商生產彈性（production flexibility）對廠商競爭優勢時，完全忽略了廠商生產彈性的來源因素，如面對不確定市場需求時，廠商如何依據產能內以及產能外的生產成本來調整其生產計畫等。縱使仍有為數不少的文獻證實了廠商生產彈性對其產品品質以及生產效率（主要是生產成本）存在高度正相關，然而由於欠缺嚴謹的理論模型設定，以及相關廠商的營運資料難以取得，造成探討不同程度的廠商生產彈性對廠商競爭優勢之文獻仍付諸闕如。針對這個缺失，本研究計畫將從新理論模型的設定及取得電子代工產業（EMS）個別廠商營運表現的資料庫著手改善，如：(1)由一個兩階段生產以及在兩階段間存在不確定市場需求的理論模型，來探討廠商的主要表現指標（成本、利潤、規模）與各項生產彈性設定的因果關係；(2)本計畫也將由電子代工產業廠商營運資料庫的購置使用，架構可供模型運算的細部變數資料庫。如此，可以採用模型校正（parameter calibration）刻劃理論模型參數以計算出公司層級的生產彈性對電子代工廠商市場力以及競爭優勢的影響，並藉由擬真分析 （counterfactual analysis）計算廠商生產彈性的不同改善程度是如何影響電子代工廠商面對不確定市場需求變動或外在競爭者加入時的存活率與生產計劃的調整，並以之做為我國IT產業面對紅色供應鏈挑戰時的各項產業政策分析及建議。
    What is the relationship between those factors affecting production flexibility and demand uncertainty faced by electronics manufacturing services (EMS) firms? This question is left unexplored although a vast economic and business literature has devoted to the correlation between production flexibility and productivity. The reasons are the current model does not endogenize the original factors influencing firm’s production flexibility and the lack of particular firm-level operational data. To correct these two problems, this proposal utilizes a two-stage monopolistic competitive framework with demand shock in-between and the idea of the adjustment of production process of firms with greater production flexibility being traceable when facing uncertain demand shock. This research will investigate why those good EMS firms (i.e. Foxxconn, Wistron, Petragon) which are more adaptable to the uncertain market demand are easy to grow against the market demand headwinds. This model specification in turn allows us to calibrate industry and firm-level production function parameters, using an anticipated procured firm-level dataset itemizing on operation details. This enables us to gain better insight toward understanding specifically the sustainability of Taiwanese Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) business in face of the “Red Supply Chain”. Such an endeavor also permits counterfactual policy experiments using a structural model consistent with the empirically observed industry framework.
    關聯: 科技部, MOST105-2410-H004-017, 105.08-106.07
    資料類型: report
    顯示於類別:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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