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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158096


    Title: 利用地理邊界政策不連續法估計失業保險稅對勞動需求的影響
    Estimating the Effects of Unemployment Insurance Tax Base on Labor Demand Using Border Discontinuity Design
    Authors: 黃柏鈞
    Contributors: 經濟系
    Keywords: 失業保險;失業保險稅基;勞動需求;地理邊界政策不連續法
    Unemployment Insurance;Unemployment Insurance Tax Base;Labor Demand;Border Discontinuity Design
    Date: 2022-03
    Issue Date: 2025-07-16 11:14:05 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 此篇論文估計失業保險稅基對勞動需求的影響。Huang（2019）利用州追蹤資料以及Current Population Survey估計提高稅基可以提高低薪勞工的就業水準，但由於遭受負面經濟衝擊的州，有壓力增加其失業保險稅基以融通增加的失業給付，無法排除Huang（2019）估計的結果有可能是由政策的內生性所導致。在這個計畫中，我將使用Dube et. al (2010) 的地理邊界不連續設計以解決內生性問題。Dube et. al (2010) 的邊界不連續性設計比較了美國跨州邊界的縣市。由於邊界縣市遭受類似的經濟衝擊，毗鄰的邊界縣市應為經歷政策變化的縣市的可信控制組。因此，比較邊界地區的縣市將減緩政策內生性的問題。我將使用美國Quartely Workforce Indicators的縣市行政資料。與調查資料相較，Quartely Workforce Indicators數據集至少具有兩個優勢：（1）勞動需求資料的衡量誤差較小；（2）廣泛的勞動需求資料，例如僱用，離職和勞動力轉換。此計畫是一個為期兩年的提案，因為建構邊界縣市樣本和進行邊界不連續性設計是一項具挑戰性且需長期投入的工作。
    This project estimates the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) tax base on labor demand. Although Huang (2019) offers empirical evidence that increasing the tax base will increase low-wage employment using data from Current Population Survey and state-level variation in the tax base, it is possible that the estimated effect is driven by policy endogeneity---states experienced unobserved negative economic shocks have pressure to increase their UI tax base to finance increased UI benefits.In this project, I will use a border discontinuity design from Dube et. al (2010) to address the endogeneity concern. The border discontinuity design compares contiguous county-pairs in the United States that straddle a state border. Since counties around the border experience similar economic shocks, contiguous border counties should be a credible control group for counties that experience policy changes. Therefore, comparing counties around borders will alleviate the concern that the estimated effect of the tax base is driven by policy endogeneity. I will use data from Quarterly Workforce Indicators that contains administrative labor demand outcomes at county level. The data set from Quarterly Workforce Indicators have at least two advantages compared to survey data: (1) less measurement error for labor demand outcomes and (2) comprehensive labor demand outcomes, such as hires, separations, and turnover. This is a two-year proposal because it will be a challenging task to organize the border-county samples and conduct border discontinuity design.
    Relation: 科技部, MOST109-2410-H004-133, 109.08-110.07
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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