Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158399
|
| Title: | 應用社群網路分析法調查美中貿易戰對蘋果供應鏈在中國與台灣半導體產業的影響
An Application of Social Network Analysis to Examine the Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Apple's Supply Chain in the Semiconductor Sectors of China and Taiwan |
| Authors: | 鄒慈憶
Tsou, Tzu-Yi |
| Contributors: | 洪叔民
邱奕嘉
Horng, Shwu-Min
Chiu, Yi-Chia
鄒慈憶
Tsou, Tzu-Yi |
| Keywords: | 中美貿易戰
蘋果供應鏈
台灣半導體產業
中國半導體產業
社群網路分析
US-China Trade War
Apple Supply Chain
Taiwan Semiconductor Industry
China Semiconductor Industry
Social Network Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 13:33:00 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 2018 年川普對中國發起多次的貿易審查及多次的關稅清單，美國、中國身為全球經濟貿易要角，不論在生產加工、技術研發，抑或僅是貿易中繼點，一舉一動都可能使供應鏈更加不堪一擊，而在美國與中國兩大強國的政治角力中，台灣因為地緣因素與中國貿易往來頻繁，特別在半導體產業的技術研發與生產也經常獲得終端客戶的青睞，因此許多研究報導指出，在美中的貿易戰台灣的產業也將受到直接的影響，下游廠商可能為穩固供應鏈而將布局自中國移出，在這種情況下，台灣廠商可能因而受惠。
本研究所進行的時間點為 2024 年，自貿易戰的開端以來已逾 6 年，希望能透過真實的歷史資訊提供一個全視角的供應鏈變化與趨勢，而為了能有比較的基準與研究著重點，本研究以蘋果公司在中國與台灣的供應鏈布局作為研究對象，蒐集自 2012 年至 2023 年這 13 年間近萬筆的交易資料，除了敘述統計之外，也加入了社群網路分析 (Social Network Analysis) ，透過多元的分析視角交互驗證以提供更客觀的結果。
本研究最終發現在分析蘋果供應鏈及中國、台灣的半導體產業分布，並未有明顯的趨勢凸顯出中國廠商因為貿易戰的因素使產業受到影響，或是如新聞媒體提及的影響力弱化，仍有許多中國廠商在過去這幾年逐漸累積相關專業技術，並漸漸提高其市占率。而台灣廠商在這一系列的經濟、政治因素影響之下，自分析結果也未從中獲取明顯優勢，表現大致持平。從各項數據分析的結果，本研究也點出了一些值得注意的變化趨勢，如台積電在半導體產業中仍扮演關鍵角色、立訊精密近年的崛起等等。
本研究透過真實的交易資料驗證過去學者、媒體所預測的未來變化趨勢，部分如我們所週知，但也有部分並未吻合預測方向，而在最後的研究限制也敘明了本研究所使用的資料庫的研究限制，交易資料的取得不易，期望未來資料庫更加完整與具備更高的可信度，將能使此研究方式的結果更有說服力並有更有利的立著點對未來產業發展規劃提出建議。
In 2018, during his first term as President of the United States, Donald Trump initiated a series of trade investigations and imposed multiple rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods. As two of the most influential economies in the world, the actions taken by the United States and China in areas such as manufacturing, technological development, and trade logistics have had significant implications for the stability of global supply chains. With Trump's return to the presidency in 2025, tensions between the two nations have further intensified. Taiwan, due to its geographic proximity to China and strong trade ties, is particularly sensitive to these developments. Especially in the semiconductor industry, Taiwan has long been favored by end clients for its strengths in research and development as well as production. As a result, many studies have indicated that Taiwan's industries are likely to be directly affected by the U.S.-China trade war. In efforts to strengthen supply chain resilience, downstream companies may relocate operations out of China, potentially creating opportunities for Taiwanese firms.
This study was conducted in 2024, more than six years after the onset of the trade conflict. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of supply chain changes and trends based on real historical data. To establish a meaningful comparison and focal point, this research uses Apple Inc.'s supply chain distribution in China and Taiwan as the primary case study. Nearly ten thousand transaction records from the period 2012 to 2023 were collected. In addition to descriptive statistics, the study employs Social Network Analysis to validate findings from multiple perspectives and deliver more objective conclusions.
The results indicate that, contrary to certain media narratives and prior academic predictions, there is no clear evidence that Chinese suppliers in Apple’s supply chain or in the broader semiconductor industry have been significantly harmed by the trade war. Many Chinese companies have continued to develop technical expertise and gradually increased their market share in recent years. Meanwhile, Taiwanese companies have not demonstrated a notable advantage or performance gain as a result of the trade tensions, with overall trends remaining relatively stable. The analysis also highlights several noteworthy developments, such as the critical role played by TSMC in the semiconductor ecosystem and the rise of Luxshare Precision in recent years.
By relying on real transaction data, this study revisits and evaluates the accuracy of past forecasts made by scholars and media outlets. While some predictions have proven accurate, others have not aligned with actual developments. Lastly, this study also addresses the limitations associated with the underlying dataset, particularly the challenges in acquiring reliable transaction records. It is anticipated that future research, supported by more complete and credible databases, will further strengthen the validity of this methodology and offer a more solid foundation for informing industrial development and strategic planning. |
| Reference: | 中文文獻
李佩璇（2012）。在 MANET 中基於社群關係導向之傳輸機制研究。未出版碩士論文。國立政治大學資訊科學系，台灣台北。
中文網路資料
丁志華（2018年1月8日）。矽晶・電子：矽說台灣–台灣半導體產業發展與全球地位。科技大觀園。檢索自 https://scitechvista.nat.gov.tw/Article/c000003/detail?ID=aa4847d1-518f-45e2-be90-3dba4d66c9e9
吳佳蓉（2019年8月22日）。美中貿易戰上半年轉單，台灣列第三大受惠國。財經新報。檢索自 https://finance.technews.tw/2019/08/22/trade-war-tw-no3/
吳靜君（2019年8月21日）。中美貿易戰轉單效應 台灣上半年為第三受惠國。ETtoday財經雲。檢索自 https://finance.ettoday.net/news/1518290
林昕潔（2018年12月19日）。《貿易戰特稿》半導體「關稅」是重點？中美角力才關鍵。MoneyDJ。檢索自 https://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=ca3757a2-393d-49df-8a70-fa640d26cbde&c=MB070100
科技產業資訊室（2018年11月28日）。美中貿易戰效應：蘋果供應鏈可能移往台灣桃園。科技產業資訊室。檢索自 https://iknow.stpi.niar.org.tw/Post/Read.aspx?PostID=15047
莉雅（2024年2月8日）。2023年美中貿易逆差大幅減少 戴琪：關稅是重要的防禦性工具。VOA。檢索自 https://www.voacantonese.com/a/us-china-trade-economy-tariffs/7479045.html
張漢驊（2024年12月24日）。半導體成長力道強 明年全球產值 年增維持兩位數。工商時報。檢索自 https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20241224700127-439901
鍾榮峰（2024年4月22日）。蘋果公布供應鏈名單 南亞科、嘉澤與聯詠不在其中。中央通訊社。檢索自 https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202404220101.aspx
英文文獻
Alenazi, M. J. F. & Sterbenz, J. P. G. (2015). Evaluation and comparison of several graph robustness metrics to improve
network resilience. 2015 7th International Workshop on Reliable Networks Design and Modeling (RNDM), 7-13. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/rndm.2015.7324302
Bier, T., Lange, A. & Glock, C. H. (2019). Methods for mitigating disruptions in complex supply chain structures: a systematic literature review. International Journal of Production Research, 58(6), 1835-1856. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2019.1687954
Borgatti, S. P. (2005). Centrality and network flow. Social Networks, 27(1), 55-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2004.11.008
Borgatti, S.P., Mehra, A., Brass, D. & Labianca, G. (2009). Network Analysis in the Social Sciences. Science, (323), pp. 892-895. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1165821
Burt, R. S. (1992). Structural Holes: The Social Structure of Competition. Harvard University Press
Can, U. & Alatas, B. (2019). A new direction in social network analysis: Online social network analysis problems and applications. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 535, 122372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122372
Everett, M. G. & Borgatti, S. P. (2005). Ego network betweenness. Social Networks, 27(1), 31-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2004.11.007
Everett, M. G. & Borgatti, S. P. (2020). Unpacking Burt’s constraint measure. Social Networks, 62, 50-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2020.02.001
Fouad, H. & Rego, N. (2022). Centrality Measures in Supply Chain Management Research. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 55(10), 2085-2090. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2022.10.015
Fouad, H. & Rego, N. (2024). Can social network analysis contribute to supply chain management? A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis. Heliyon, 10(5), e26598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26598
Freeman, L. C. (1978-1979). Centrality in social networks conceptual clarification. Social Networks, 1(3), 215-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-8733(78)90021-7
Freeman, L. C. (1982). Centered graphs and the structure of ego networks. Mathematical Social Sciences, 3(3), 291-304. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4896(82)90076-2
Han, Y., Caldwell, N. D. and Ghadge, A. (2020). Social network analysis in operations and supply chain management: a review and revised research agenda. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 40(7,8), 1153-1176. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOPM-06-2019-0500
Hanneman, R. A. & Riddle, M. (2005). Introduction to social network methods. Riverside CA. https://faculty.ucr.edu/~hanneman/
Jo, H. J., Jeong, J. H. & Kim, C. (2016). Unpacking the ‘black box’ of a Korean big fast follower: Hyundai Motor Company’s engineer-led production system. Asian Journal of Technology Innovation, 24(sup1), 53-77. https://doi.org/10.1080/19761597.2016.1207423
Kim, JB. (2015). Social Network Analysis of a Supply Network Structural Investigation of the South Korean Automotive Industry. Advances in Production Management Systems: Innovative Production Management Towards Sustainable Growth. APMS 2015. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol 459. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22756-6_41
KIm, Y., Choi, T. Y., Yan, T. & Dooley, K. (2011). Structural investigation of supply networks: A social network analysis approach. Journal of Operations Management, 29(3), 194-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2010.11.001
Krugman, P. (1992). Geography and Trade. The MIT Press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262610865/geography-and-trade/
Landherr, A., Friedl, B. & Heidemann, J. (2010). A critical review of centrality measures in social networks. Bus Inf Syst Eng, 2, 371-385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12599-010-0127-3
Markusen, A. (1996). Sticky places in slippery space: A typology of industrial districts. Econ Geogr, 72, 293–313. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351159203-8
Mizgier, K. J., Pasia, J. M. & Talluri, S. (2017). Multiobjective capital allocation for supplier development under risk. International Journal of Production Research, 55(18), 5243-5258. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2017.1302618
Pablo, D.F. & Amit, K. K. (2021). The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War. Annual Review of Economics, vol 14(1). https://doi.org/10.3386/w29315
Pavlopoulos, G. A., Secrier, M., Moschopoulos, C. N., Soldatos, T. G., Kossida, S., Aerts, J., Schneider, R. & Bagos, P. G. (2011). Using graph theory to analyze biological networks. BioData Mining, 4(10). https://doi.org/10.1186/1756-0381-4-10
Perroux, F. (1950). Growth Poles. Economic Space: Theory and Applications. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 64, 89-104. https://doi.org/10.2307/1881960
Storper, M. (1997). The Regional World: Territorial Development in a Global Economy. Guilford Press.
Valente, T. W. (1996). Social network thresholds in the diffusion of innovations. Social Networks, 18(1), 69-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-8733(95)00256-1
Wang, Z. & Sarkis, J. (2013). Investigating the relationship of sustainable supply chain management with corporate financial performance. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 62(8), 871-888. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPPM-03-2013-0033
Wasserman, S. & Faust, K. (1994). Social Network Analysis: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511815478
Wu, J., Wood, J., Oh, K., & Jang, H. (2021). Evaluating the cumulative impact of the US-China trade war along global value chains. The World Economy, 44(12), 3516–3533. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13125
Yilmaz, B. K. & Kaufmann, L. (2016). Social network analysis in supply chain management research. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 46(8), 740-762. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-05-2015-0122
英文網路資料
Barss, E. (2017, October 12). Trump’s Intellectual Property Push and the Hope for Chinese Reform. THE DIPLOMAT. https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/trumps-intellectual-property-push-and-the-hope-for-chinese-reform/
Bown, C. P., & Wolf, K. (2022, November 22). National security, semiconductors, and the US move to cut off China. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2022/national-security-semiconductors-and-us-move-cut-china
Counterpoint. (2024, April 23). China Smartphone Sales Remain in Black on Huawei, HONOR, Xiaomi Outperformance. Counterpoint. https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/china-smartphone-q1-2024/
IDC Research. (2025, January 13). Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Grew 6.4% in 2024, Despite Macro Challenges according to IDC. IDC Research. https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53072325
Lopez, L. (2017, August 19). The US Fired the First Shot in a Trade War with China. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-begins-section-301-investigation-2017-8
Mishkin, S. (2013, September 29). Chinese companies move into supply chain for Apple components. Financial Times. https://on.ft.com/4kkm7Ow
Mordor Intelligence. (n.d.). Semiconductor in Mobile Phones Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030). Mordor Intelligence. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/mobile-phone-semiconductor-market-growth
Oberlo. (n.d.). Smartphone Market Share Worldwide (2024). Oberlo. https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/smartphone-market-share
Savov, V. (2024, January 17). Apple Passed Samsung as World’s Top Phone Maker in 2023. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/apple-passes-samsung-as-world-s-top-phone-maker-for-first-time
Slotta, D. (2025, April 24). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company - statistics & facts. Statista. https://www.statista.com/topics/7097/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company/#topicOverview
Swanson, A. (2018. April 3). White House Unveils Tariffs on 1,300 Chinese Products. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/03/us/politics/white-house-chinese-imports-tariffs.html
TrendForce. (2024, December 5). Semiconductor foundries revenue share worldwide from 2019 to 2024, by quarter [Graph]. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/867223/worldwide-semiconductor-foundries-by-market-share/
Ulrich, T. (2018, May 3). China-US Trade Frictions: Review of US 301 Investigation against China. CGTN. https://news.cgtn.com/news/78517a4e30454464776c6d636a4e6e62684a4856/share_p.html
Wu, D. (2018, November 27). Taiwan's Underdog City Is Reborn in China-U.S. Trade Spat. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-26/underdog-city-is-reborn-as-china-u-s-trade-spat-escalates
Yole Group. (2024, March 7). Semiconductor strength in mobile phones. Yole Group. https://www.yolegroup.com/yole-group-actuality/semiconductor-strength-in-mobile-phones/ |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
科技管理與智慧財產研究所
112364108 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112364108 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [科技管理與智慧財產研究所] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 410801.pdf | | 2217Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
