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| Title: | 台灣對中國積體電路出口影響因素之實證探討
Factors Influencing Taiwan’s IC Exports to China: An Empirical Analysis |
| Authors: | 何昀娟
Ho, Yun-Chuan |
| Contributors: | 吳文傑
Wu, Wen-Chieh
何昀娟
Ho, Yun-Chuan |
| Keywords: | 半導體
台積電
IC 出口
中美貿易戰
ARDL 模型
地緣政治
Semiconductors
TSMC
IC exports
U.S.–China trade war
ARDL model
Geopolitics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:17:37 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在美中科技競爭日益加劇的背景下，半導體成為國際戰略資產與政策干預的核心領域。本研究以台灣對中國之積體電路（HS 8542）出口為對象，探討在中美科技緊張升溫的背景中，中國電子產品出口、中國IC產業收益、台灣對中投資與台積電設廠，以及地緣政治衝擊等因素如何共同影響。
研究使用2000至2024年年別資料，透過ARDL模型進行實證分析，估計短期與長期的變數關係。自變數涵蓋中國對電腦與手機等電子產品類別的出口、中國IC產業營收、台灣對中投資、台積電於中國的設廠活動，以及中美貿易戰事件之虛擬變數。實證結果顯示，電腦出口與IC進口呈現互補關係，手機出口則不然；而地緣政治衝擊對IC貿易雖統計上未達顯著，但係數方向為負，暗示政策不確定性可能造成 IC 進口需求的風險，並突顯供應鏈重組的潛在影響。
本研究突顯台灣在全球半導體價值鏈中的樞紐角色，並對台灣面對科技脫鉤與政治風險之下的出口策略調整，提供初步的實證觀察與學術參考。
Amid the intensifying U.S.–China technological rivalry, semiconductors have become central to strategic competition and policy intervention. This study focuses on Taiwan’s exports of integrated circuits (HS 8542) to China, analyzing how factors such as China’s sectoral export structure, domestic IC industry demand, Taiwanese investment, TSMC’s operational presence in China, and major geopolitical shocks collectively shape bilateral trade flows.
Using annual data from 2000 to 2024, the study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships. Independent variables include China’s exports of electronic products (computers and mobile phones), IC industry revenues, Taiwanese FDI in China, TSMC’s mainland fabs, and dummy variables for the U.S.–China trade war. The results show that computer exports are positively associated with IC imports, while mobile phone exports are not. Geopolitical dummies are negative but statistically insignificant, hinting at—yet not confirming—a dampening effect on IC trade. The findings underscore Taiwan’s pivotal role in the global semiconductor value chain and offer preliminary empirical insights into how Taiwan might adapt its export strategies in the context of technological decoupling and geopolitical risk. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
112266007 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112266007 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文
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