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| Title: | 台美半導體供應鏈之研究
A Study on the Semiconductor Supply Chain in Taiwan and the United States |
| Authors: | 杜任濠
Tu, Jen-Hao |
| Contributors: | 周德宇
杜任濠
Tu, Jen-Hao |
| Keywords: | 半導體供應鏈
積體電路出口
半導體設備進口
AI
時間序列迴歸分析
Semiconductor supply chain
IC exports
Semiconductor equipment imports
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Time series regression analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:23:37 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究旨在探討台灣與美國在半導體供應鏈中的互動關係，為實現研究目標，因此建立兩個模型，模型I特別聚焦於美國科技企業營收成長與AI時代興起，是否對台灣積體電路（IC）出口至美國金額造成結構性影響，模型II則分析台灣IC出口總額與自日本進口半導體設備與材料金額和自荷蘭進口半導體設備金額對自美國進口半導體設備金額的帶動效應。本研究以2014年至2024年時間序列資料為基礎，使用R語言進行實證迴歸分析，並依據資料特性分別採用普通最小平方法（OLS）與廣義最小平方法（GLS）進行模型估計。
模型I的實證結果顯示，在AI技術快速發展的背景下，特別是在2019年以後，Nvidia與AMD營收對台灣IC出口至美國金額具有顯著正向影響，交乘項呈現高度顯著，顯示AI浪潮已實質強化台灣在高階晶片供應鏈中的關鍵地位。Tesla營收亦對出口具顯著影響，反映出AI自駕與電動車領域的晶片需求動能，反之，Apple與Intel之營收對出口影響不顯著，可能與其供應鏈策略與營運模式有關。
在另一方面，模型II的實證結果指出，台灣IC出口總額對自美國進口半導體設備金額具正向效果，顯示出口擴張將帶動設備需求，而自日本進口矽晶圓金額則對自美國進口半導體設備金額有顯著負向關係，反映出材料與設備採購時點的不同之特性，至於其他方面，自日本進口半導體設備金額與自美國進口半導體設備金額呈現正向影響，而自荷蘭進口半導體設備金額則與自美國進口半導體設備金額具替代關係，反映出台灣企業在進口設備時採取多元、互補與分工並存的策略。
This study investigates the interaction between Taiwan and the United States within the semiconductor supply chain. To achieve this objective, two empirical models are constructed. Model I focuses on whether the revenue growth of U.S. technology companies and the rise of the AI era have structurally influenced Taiwan’s exports of integrated circuits (ICs) to the United States. Model II analyzes whether Taiwan’s total IC exports, along with imports of semiconductor equipment and materials from Japan and semiconductor equipment from the Netherlands, drive the country’s imports of semiconductor equipment from the United States.
Based on quarterly time series data from 2014 to 2024, this study employs regression analysis using the R programming language. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) are applied to Models I and II, respectively, depending on the statistical properties of the data.
The empirical results of Model I show that, under the rapid advancement of AI technology—particularly after 2019—the revenues of NVIDIA and AMD have a significantly positive impact on Taiwan’s IC exports to the United States. The interaction terms are highly significant, indicating that the AI boom has substantially reinforced Taiwan’s strategic position in the high-end chip supply chain. Tesla’s revenue also exhibits a significant positive effect on IC exports, driven by strong chip demand in autonomous driving and electric vehicle applications. In contrast, the revenues of Apple and Intel show no significant impact, which may be attributed to their unique supply chain strategies and operational models.
On the other hand, the empirical results of Model II indicate that Taiwan’s total IC exports positively affect its imports of semiconductor equipment from the United States, suggesting that export expansion drives equipment demand. Meanwhile, imports of silicon wafers from Japan have a significant negative effect, reflecting differences in procurement timing between materials and equipment. Additionally, imports of semiconductor equipment from Japan have a positive association with U.S. equipment imports, whereas imports from the Netherlands exhibit a substitutive relationship. These findings suggest that Taiwanese firms adopt a diversified, complementary, and distributed sourcing strategy when procuring semiconductor equipment. |
| Reference: | [1] 朱育賢與徐世勳(2020)。美中經貿衝突對臺灣產業之經濟影響評估：以臺灣半導體及資通訊產業為例。應用經濟論叢。
[2] 經濟部統計處(2024)。當前經濟情勢概況(專題：由美國進口變化觀察供應鏈移轉情況)。
[3] 張育誌(2019)。臺灣半導體進出口研究：以海關進口稅則8542節實證分析。國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。
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[1] Chen-Yuan Tung(2023). TAIWAN AND THE GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR. SUPPLY CHAIN. Taipei Representative Office in Singapore.
[2] Lotta Danielsson(2023). U.S., Taiwan, and Semiconductors:A Critical Supply. Chain Partnership. US-Taiwan Business Council and the Project 2049 Institute.
[3] Yu-Hsien Chu, Sheng-Ming Hsu, Ching-Cheng Chang, Shih-Hsun Hsu(2020). An Economy-Wide Assessment of Artificial Intelligence Investment on Manufacturing: A Case Study of Taiwan’s Semiconductor and ICT Industries. Modern Economy.
[4] Suhua Ou,Qingshan Yang,Jian Liu(2024). The global production pattern of the. semiconductor industry: an empirical research based on trade network. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications.
[5] Kempf Tristan,Vito Bobek,Horvat Tatjana(2021). The Impacts of the American-Chinese Trade War and COVID-19 Pandemic on Taiwan’s Sales in Semiconductor Industry. International Journal of Economics and Finance.
[6] William A. Reinsch and Jack Whitney(2025). Silicon Island: Assessing. Taiwan’s Importance to U.S. Economic Growth and Security. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
[7] Lin Jones, Sarah Krulikowski, Nathan Lotze, Samantha Schreiber(2023). U.S. EXPOSURE TO THE TAIWANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY. U.S. International Trade Commission.
[8] Kristy Tsun Tzu Hsu(2022). Taiwan as a Partner in the U.S. Semiconductor
Supply Chain. Wilson Center. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255027 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255027 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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