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| Title: | 臺灣人口老化對消費不均度的影響—以空間計量模型分析
The Impact of Population Aging on Consumption Inequality in Taiwan: Evidence from Spatial Analysis |
| Authors: | 張允瀞
Chang, Yun Ching |
| Contributors: | 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
張允瀞
Chang, Yun Ching |
| Keywords: | 消費不均度
一般動差法
人口老化
空間計量分析
Consumption Inequality
Generalized Method of Moments
Population Aging
Spatial Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:24:12 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在全球人口結構轉向高齡化的趨勢之下，其對於消費分配的影響成為重要的議題。本研究透過臺灣20個縣市2011年至2023年家戶收支調查之數據，分析老齡化等人口結構變遷對消費分配可能產生的影響，以期能夠找出改善消費不均的問題。
本研究使用一般動差法(GMM)，以動態空間自我回歸模型(DSAR)進行實證計算。消費不均度之計算是使用家戶收支調查之消費支出資料計算其吉尼係數。
本研究之實證模型指出消費不均度之空間效果為負向空間相依。當本縣市之消費不均程度增加，鄰近地區之消費不均程度會減緩。在動態變動方面，前一期的消費不平等增加，會影響當期的消費不均程度也增加。在其他變數方面，老年人口比率增加、幼年人口比率增加，消費越不平等。家戶規模增加、人口密度增加，消費分配會越平等。
As populations around the world age, understanding how this demographic transformation affects consumption distribution has gained growing significance. This study uses data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 2011 to 2023 to analyze the possible impact of demographic changes such as aging on consumption distribution, in order to find ways to improve consumption inequality.
This study uses the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Model (DSAR) for empirical calculations. The calculation of consumption inequality is to use the consumption expenditure data from the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure to calculate its Gini coefficient.
The empirical model of this study indicates that the spatial effect of consumption inequality is negative spatial dependence. When the consumption inequality in a county increase, the consumption inequality in neighboring areas will decrease. In terms of dynamic changes, an increase in consumption inequality in the previous period has a positive impact on the level of consumption inequality in the current period. In terms of other variables, the higher the proportion of the elderly population and the proportion of the young population, consumption distribution becomes more unequal. As household size and population density increase, consumption distribution becomes more equal. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255032 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255032 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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