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| Title: | 新冠疫情對中國房價的空間效應研究：基於政策間斷均衡與機器學習方法
Research on the Spatial Effects of COVID-19 on China's Housing Prices: A Policy Punctuated Equilibrium and Machine Learning Approach |
| Authors: | 徐聰
Xu, Cong |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tso-Yu
徐聰
Xu, Cong |
| Keywords: | 新冠疫情
房地產市場
空間異質性
政策干預
間斷均衡理論
空間機器學習
COVID-19
Real estate market
Spatial heterogeneity
Policy intervention
Punctuated equilibrium theory
Spatial machine learning |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 15:06:55 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究探討了重大公共衛生事件期間房地產市場的空間效應與政策影響機制，通過結合間斷均衡理論與空間計量方法，構建了一個整合空間異質性、政策干預與風險傳導的分析框架。基於江浙滬三省市的多層次數據，運用空間機器學習方法系統考察了疫情對房地產市場的多維度影響。研究發現，外部衝擊對房地產市場的影響呈現顯著的空間異質性與非線性特徵，風險傳遞的區域分化主要源於經濟結構、醫療資源分佈及社會網絡的空間差異。封控政策的空間效應具有臨界值特徵、多維度溢出效應及區域敏感度差異，實證結果顯示封控政策對房價增速產生顯著負向影響，並通過購房需求、開發投資和消費者信心三條路徑傳導，其中副省級城市和高人口密度區域對政策衝擊的敏感度顯著高於其他地區。本研究的核心貢獻在於建立了一個可普遍應用的分析框架，用於理解重大外部衝擊（包括公共衛生危機、自然災害、金融動盪等）對房地產市場的空間傳導機制，研究識別的傳導路徑和空間異質性模式為全球其他地區在應對類似危機時提供了重要參考。特別是"政策臨界值效應"和"空間溢出機制"的發現，對於任何需要實施區域性干預措施的情況都具有普遍指導意義。對政策制定的啟示包括：在制定應急響應政策時必須考慮區域異質性，建立差異化的調控機制；需要構建跨區域協調機制以管理政策的空間溢出效應；應根據不同市場細分的特徵制定精準化政策。本研究開發的空間機器學習框架可被其他國家和地區採用，通過輸入本地經濟結構、人口特徵等參數，預測政策效果並優化決策，這種方法論創新不僅適用於房地產市場，也可擴展至其他受空間效應影響的經濟領域，為危機管理和政策設計提供了新的分析工具。
This study explores the spatial effects and policy impact mechanisms of real estate markets during major public health events. By combining punctuated equilibrium theory with spatial econometric methods, it constructs an analytical framework that integrates spatial heterogeneity, policy interventions, and risk transmission. Based on multi-level data from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, this research systematically examines the multidimensional impacts of the pandemic on real estate markets using spatial machine learning methods. The findings reveal that external shocks exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear characteristics in their impact on real estate markets, with regional differentiation in risk transmission primarily stemming from spatial differences in economic structure, medical resource distribution, and social networks. The spatial effects of lockdown policies demonstrate threshold characteristics, multidimensional spillover effects, and regional sensitivity differences. Empirical results show that lockdown policies have a significant negative impact on housing price growth rates, transmitted through three pathways: housing demand, development investment, and consumer confidence, with sub-provincial cities and high-population-density areas showing significantly higher sensitivity to policy shocks than other regions. The core contribution of this research lies in establishing a universally applicable analytical framework for understanding the spatial transmission mechanisms of major external shocks (including public health crises, natural disasters, and financial turmoil) on real estate markets. The identified transmission pathways and spatial heterogeneity patterns provide important references for other regions globally when responding to similar crises. The discoveries of "policy threshold effects" and "spatial spillover mechanisms" offer universal guidance for any situation requiring regional intervention measures. Policy implications include: emergency response policies must consider regional heterogeneity and establish differentiated control mechanisms; cross-regional coordination mechanisms are needed to manage spatial spillover effects of policies; and targeted policies should be formulated based on different market segment characteristics. The spatial machine learning framework developed in this study can be adopted by other countries and regions to predict policy effects and optimize decision-making by inputting local economic structures, population characteristics, and other parameters. This methodological innovation applies not only to real estate markets but can also be extended to other economic fields affected by spatial effects, providing new analytical tools for crisis management and policy design. |
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| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
地政學系
108257504 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108257504 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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