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| Title: | 威權國家的貿易政策與政變風險（1988–2022）
Trade Policy and Coup Risk in Authoritarian Regimes (1988–2022) |
| Authors: | 王奕凱
Wang, Yi-Kai |
| Contributors: | 吳文欽
陳秉逵
Wu, Wen-Chin
Chen, Ping-Kuei
王奕凱
Wang, Yi-Kai |
| Keywords: | 貿易政策
關稅表
威權政體
支持聯盟
政變
Trade policy
Tariff schedule
Authoritarian regime
Support coalition
Coup d'état |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 15:16:48 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 儘管全球貿易自由化的趨勢推動各國逐步降低平均關稅稅率，並促使貿易模式由產業間貿易轉為產業內貿易為主，然而，即使在同一產業內，關稅結構仍呈現顯著差異，顯示出貿易保護政策的選擇性與高度細緻化。近年來，美中貿易摩擦、以及歐洲對中國特定產業的保護措施，凸顯各國仍然依賴關稅作為戰略工具，以應對國際競爭壓力。為何部分國家依然高度依賴關稅？領導者又如何運用關稅政策來應對國內政治壓力？本研究認為，關稅是國家用來保護關鍵支持聯盟並換取政治支持的重要手段。透過分析國家關稅表的設計，本研究採用1988年至2022年間涵蓋超過1000種產業的跨國關稅數據進行量化分析，發現威權政體的關稅制定實際上反映國內多元支持聯盟的利益分配，進而降低領導者遭遇政變的風險。此外，透過馬來西亞與迦納的案例分析，本研究不僅比較不同區域間的貿易政策差異，亦進一步揭示產業政策的關稅如何反映菁英集團的利益。透過檢視關稅政策與政治穩定之間的關係，本研究試圖深化對威權治理模式的理解，並強調貿易政策在國內及國際政治經濟中的關鍵作用。
Why do regimes still rely heavily on tariffs despite the global trend toward trade liberalization? How do they use tariffs to manage domestic political pressures? Although globalization has led to a reduction in average tariff rates, significant variance within industries persists, particularly as trade has shifted from inter-industry to intra-industry patterns. Regimes continue to rely on tariffs as strategic tools to protect domestic interest groups and counter international competition. This is evident in trade conflicts, such as those between the United States and China, and protective measures between the Europe and China. This paper focuses on the design of tariff schedules and how they reflect domestic political interests, particularly in authoritarian regimes. Our findings support these expectations, showing that tariff schedules benefit the support coalition while addressing opposition demands, reducing the risk of domestic violence and coup attempts. Using cross-national tariff data from 1988 to 2022, covering over 1,000 industries, our analysis reveals that tariffs serve as political tools for distributing benefits, maintaining regime stability, and satisfying the demands of support coalitions. By examining the relationship between tariff policies and political stability, this study contributes to our understanding of authoritarian governance and highlights the critical role tariffs play in both domestic and international political economy. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
110253011 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110253011 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
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