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| Title: | 「偽兩極」體系下的權力博弈：美中在南海的戰略互動與行為分析
Power Rivalry under a Pseudo-Bipolar System: Strategic Interactions and Behavioral Analysis of U.S.- China Competition in the South China Sea |
| Authors: | 張秉寓 |
| Contributors: | 邱坤玄
張秉寓 |
| Keywords: | 結構現實主義
偽兩極體系
極態分析
南海
美中大國
Structural Realism
Pseudo-Bipolar System
Polarity Analysis
South China Sea
U.S.-China Great Power Rivalry |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 15:25:09 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究旨在探討在單極體系式微、穩定兩極尚未成形的國際權力過渡期，美中兩大強權在南海地區的戰略互動與行為模式，提出一種過渡性質的「偽兩極體系」（Pseudo-Bipolar System）。本研究從國際關係極態理論出發，對比冷戰時期美蘇的對抗模式與當代美中關係，並透過國家能力及外交政策偏好（兩項量化指標進行實證比較。研究發現，儘管美國在軍事和經濟總量上仍保有領先優勢，但中國的綜合國力與區域投射能力正顯著提升，兩國實力差距不斷縮小，形成一種「趨近均勢但未完全對稱」的結構。這種體系既非單極霸權獨大，也非冷戰時期兩大陣營壁壘分明的對峙，更不同於權力高度分散的多極格局，而是呈現出「兩強主導、競爭與合作並存」的混合特徵。
為找出在「偽兩極體系」下國家行為的特徵，本研究聚焦於美中在南海的政策宣示與實際作為，分析其如何反映兩大強權的權力互動邏輯。研究發現，美國的南海政策從早期的「戰略觀望」逐步轉向歐巴馬政府的「亞太再平衡」與川普政府「印太戰略」下的強勢作為與對抗，透過高頻率的航行自由行動（FONOPs）與聯合軍演，展現其維護區域主導權的決心。然而，美國的強硬宣示與實際行動之間存在落差，常在維護威懾的同時，避免與中國發生直接衝突。相對地，中國的南海戰略經歷了從「主權屬我、擱置爭議」到「主動維權、塑造秩序」的根本轉型，透過大規模填海造陸、島礁軍事化建設、頒布《海警法》等行動，積極重塑區域權力結構。中國的行為邏輯體現出「話語模糊、行動漸進」的特點，透過「切香腸戰術」穩步擴張，同時避免引發全面對抗。
This study aims to explore the strategic interactions and behavioral patterns of the two major powers, the United States and China, in the South China Sea during a transitional period of international power where the unipolar system is in decline and a stable bipolar system has not yet formed, proposing a transitional "Pseudo-Bipolar System". Starting from the theory of international polarity, this research compares the confrontation model of the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War with the contemporary U.S.-China relationship, and conducts an empirical comparison using two quantitative indicators: national capability and foreign policy preferences. The study finds that although the U.S. still maintains a leading advantage in overall military and economic strength, China's comprehensive national power and regional projection capabilities are significantly increasing, continuously narrowing the power gap and forming a "near-parity but not fully symmetric" structure. This system is neither a unipolar hegemony nor a clear-cut confrontation between two blocs like in the Cold War, nor is it a highly dispersed multipolar structure; instead, it presents a hybrid characteristic of "two powers dominating, with competition and cooperation coexisting". To identify the characteristics of state behavior under the "pseudo-bipolar system," this study focuses on the policy pronouncements and practical actions of the U.S. and China in the South China Sea, analyzing how they reflect the logic of power interaction between the two major powers. The findings show that the U.S. South China Sea policy gradually shifted from early "strategic observation" to the assertive actions and confrontation under the Obama administration's "Asia-Pacific Rebalance" and the Trump administration's "Indo-Pacific Strategy", demonstrating its determination to maintain regional dominance through high-frequency Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) and joint military exercises. However, there is a gap between the U.S.'s tough pronouncements and its practical actions, as it often avoids direct conflict with China while maintaining deterrence. In contrast, China's South China Sea strategy has undergone a fundamental transformation from "sovereignty belongs to me, shelving disputes" to "proactive rights protection and order shaping", actively reshaping the regional power structure through large-scale land reclamation, island militarization, and the promulgation of the "Coast Guard Law". China's behavioral logic is characterized by "vague rhetoric and gradual action", steadily expanding through "salami-slicing tactics" while avoiding all-out confrontation. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
110260012 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110260012 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究所] 學位論文
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