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| Title: | 區段徵收中地主行為與建商開發策略－以新北市新店十四張B單元為例
Landowners’ behavior and developers’ strategies in zone expropriation: A case study of Xindian, New Taipei City |
| Authors: | 羅婉寧
Lo, Wan-Ning |
| Contributors: | 林子欽
Lin, Tzu-Chin
羅婉寧
Lo, Wan-Ning |
| Keywords: | 地主行為
建商開發策略
區段徵收
Landowners’ behavior
Developers’ strategies
Zone expropriation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 14:32:54 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 近年來，都市邊緣農地的開發與土地市場動態變化，已經成為區段徵收過程中的重要議題。在區段徵收制度下，政府透過法定程序整合土地，促進都市發展與公共建設，惟在區段徵收公告前，土地市場常因政策預期與市場訊號而出現顯著波動。特別是在區段徵收計畫審議通過至公告前的期間，常見地主提前出售土地予開發商、投資者進場收購等現象，對土地價格、交易量及所有權結構產生深遠影響。因此，本研究聚焦土地及地主特徵對地主出售行為之影響，以及不同類型建商的土地取得策略差異。本研究以新北市新店區十四張B單元區段徵收開發案為研究對象，採用邏輯特模型（Logit Model）與獨立樣本t檢定方法，分析地主是否於區段徵收公告前將土地出售予建商之決策行為，並比較非在地建商與在地建商在土地交易面積、價格與取得時間之差異。研究資料包括101年8月至113年11月間實價登錄與土地謄本資料。實證結果顯示，地主是否出售土地，受到土地面積、使用分區、共有人數與地主住所區位等特徵顯著影響；其中，大面積土地地主傾向保留土地，而農業區、共有人數多及非在地地主傾向提前出售土地。至於非在地與在地建商，兩者在交易面積、價格及取得時間上差異均未達統計顯著，顯示兩類型建商在本案之購地行為並無明顯不同。綜上所述，本研究揭示區段徵收公告前，土地及地主特徵對地主決策行為之影響，以及不同開發商於土地市場中之行為策略，對於理解區段徵收前土地市場動態具有實證意涵，並可作為政府未來在都市邊緣地區推動土地開發政策與監管市場行為之參考。
The development of urban fringe farmland and fluctuations in land markets are critical issues in zone expropriation. Before official announcements, policy expectations often trigger significant changes in prices, transactions, and ownership, with landowners selling early to developers and investors entering the market. This study examines how land and landowner characteristics affect selling behavior and compares acquisition strategies between local and non-local developers. Using the Xindian District in New Taipei City as a case study, the research applies a Logit Model and independent sample t-tests to transaction data from 2012 to 2024. Results indicate that land size, zoning, number of co-owners, and owners’ residence significantly influence sales decisions. Larger plots are more likely retained, while agricultural land, co-owned parcels, and land held by non-local owners are more likely sold early. No significant differences were found between local and non-local developers in transaction scale, price, or timing. These findings reveal the determinants of landowners’ early sales and developers’ behavior prior to expropriation announcements, offering insights for policy on land development and market regulation at urban fringes. |
| Reference: | 一、 中文參考文獻
（一）專書
林左裕（2022）。不動產投資管理（第七版）。元照出版。
（二）期刊
林子欽、許明芳，2003，「個別土地開發前的產權調整－市地重劃區個案觀察」，臺灣土地研究，6(2)，1–16.
林子欽、張正，2004，「地主和承租人如何面對土地徵收的風險」，臺灣土地研究，7(1)，1–18.
林文苑，2022，「宜蘭縣農地土地利用變遷分析之研究－以溪北地區為例」，建築與規劃學報，21(1/2)，1-20。
（三）學位論文
黃怡婷，2002，「區段徵收地主選擇行為之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
陳冠華，2013，「不確定市場下建商投資行為之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
夏崧峰，2023，「建設公司在整體開發區購地時機之研究－區段徵收區及市地重劃區之比較」，國立臺北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文。
莊博閔，2020，「 區段徵收土地整合與交易價格變動之研究－以新店中央新村北側附近地區為例」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
二、 英文參考文獻
（一）專書
Adams, D. (1994). Urban planning and the development process. Routledge.
Adams, D., Disberry, A., Hutchison, N., & Munjoma, T. (2001). Ownership constraints to brownfield redevelopment. Environment and Planning A, 33(3), 453–477.
Adams, D., & Watkins, C. (2002). Greenfields, brownfields and housing development. Blackwell Science.
Adams, D., & Tiesdell, S. (2013). Shaping places: Urban planning, design and development. Routledge.
Bryant, C. R., & Johnston, T. R. R. (1992). Agriculture in the city's countryside. University of Toronto Press.
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under uncertainty. Princeton University Press.
Field, A. (2013). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics (4th ed.). Sage Publications.
Gravetter, F. J., & Wallnau, L. B. (2016). Statistics for the behavioral sciences (10th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis (5th ed.). Prentice Hall.
Hosmer, D. W., & Lemeshow, S. (2000). Applied logistic regression (2nd ed.). Wiley.
Ingram, G. K., & Hong, Y. H. (2007). Land policies and their outcomes. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Levene, H. (1960). Robust tests for equality of variances. In I. Olkin (Ed.), Contributions to probability and statistics: Essays in honor of Harold Hotelling (pp. 278-292). Stanford University Press.
Long, J. S. (1997). Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Sage Publications.
Menard, S. (2002). Applied logistic regression analysis (2nd ed.). Sage Publications.
（二）期刊
Adams, C., & May, H. (1991). Active and passive behaviour in land ownership. Urban Studies, 28(5), 687-705.
Adams, D., Disberry, A., Hutchison, N., & Munjoma, T. (2002). Vacant urban land: Exploring ownership strategies and actions. Town Planning Review, 73(4), 395–416.
Blume, L., Rubinfeld, D. L., & Shapiro, P. (1984). The taking of land: When should compensation be paid? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99(1), 71-92.
Brown, H. J., Phillips, R. S., & Roberts, N. A. (1981). Land markets at the urban fringe: New insights for policy makers. Journal of the American Planning Association, 47(2), 131-144.
Bunce, M. F. (1985). Agricultural land as a real estate commodity: Implications for farmland preservation in the North American urban fringe. Landscape Planning, 12(2), 177–192.
Ding, C. (2003). Land policy reform in China: Assessment and prospects. Land Use Policy, 20(2), 109-120.
Eckart, W. (1985). On the land assembly problem. Journal of Urban Economics, 18(3), 364–378.
Healy, R. G., & Short, J. L. (1979). Rural land: Market trends and planning implications. Journal of the American Planning Association, 45(3), 305–317.
Heimlich, R., & Anderson, W. (2001). Development at & beyond the urban fringe: Impacts on agriculture. Agricultural Outlook, (283), 15–18.
Lin, T.-C. (2005). Land assembly in a fragmented land market through land readjustment. Land Use Policy, 22(2), 95-102.
Lin, T.-C., & Lin, S.-T. (2006). Decision-making of property owners and tenants in the face of compulsory purchase. Habitat International, 30(3), 434–447.
Miceli, T. J., & Segerson, K. (2007). The economics of eminent domain: Private property, public use, and just compensation. Foundations and Trends® in Microeconomics, 3(4), 275-330.
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Neutze, M. (1987). The supply of land for a particular use. Urban Studies, 24(5), 379–388.
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三、 會議記錄
內政部土地徵收審議小組（2019年10月30日）。第192次會議紀錄：新北市政府報告「變更新店都市計畫檢討第三階段（B、F、J單元）」案區段徵收之公益性及必要性評估案（會議紀錄）。內政部。https://www.moi.gov.tw/
四、 網頁參考資料
臺北市政府地政局，2021年7月1日，什麼是區段徵收？https://land.gov.taipei/News_Content.aspx?n=D02160304EF80171&sms=87415A8B9CE81B16&s=9D2C5D5573F7823C（取用日期2024年8月28日）。
內政部地政司，2024年4月29日，區段徵收https://www.land.moi.gov.tw/chhtml/content/72?mcid=3248&qitem=1（取用日期2024年8月28日）。
好房網 News，2024年5月20日，區段徵收9成地主領抵價地，https://news.housefun.com.tw/news/article/292701423609.html（取用日期2024年8月28日）。 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系碩士在職專班
111923005 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111923005 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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