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    Title: 市場恐慌下的投資工具與策略之研究
    Investment Strategies and Asset Selection in Times of Market Panic
    Authors: 陳柏仰
    Chen, Bo-Yang
    Contributors: 周冠男
    Chou, Robin K
    陳柏仰
    Chen, Bo-Yang
    Keywords: 市場恐慌
    投資策略
    資產配置
    行為財務學
    VIX指數
    恐懼與貪婪指數
    錯失漲幅日
    指數型ETF
    價值型股票
    波動率反向ETF
    Date: 2025
    Issue Date: 2025-09-01 14:47:32 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 金融市場固有的波動性,特別是市場恐慌時期,對投資者構成重大挑戰。在這些極端情境下,投資者常因情緒驅動而做出非理性決策,最典型的便是恐慌性拋售。本研究深入探討此類行為的深遠影響,特別是「錯失關鍵漲幅日」對長期報酬的侵蝕。實證數據顯示,恐慌性拋售往往導致投資者在市場谷底離場,進而錯過隨後的迅速反彈。標普500指數過去30年的回測數據明確指出,即使錯過少數幾個關鍵上漲日,累積報酬率也會大幅蒸發,導致潛在財富瞬間減半。
    為應對此挑戰,本研究提出一套基於量化市場情緒指標的動態資產配置策略。此策略運用VIX指數與恐懼與貪婪指數作為判斷市場情緒的代理變數,指導投資者在極度恐懼時逆勢加碼核心資產,並戰術性地部署特定工具。實證回測結果顯示,相較於靜態持有策略,此動態策略能顯著降低投資組合的最大回撤(從-28.7%降至-21.4%),並有效提升風險調整後報酬(夏普比率由0.38提升至0.51)。
    本研究證實,透過學術驗證的框架,投資者能夠有效克服行為偏誤,將市場恐慌轉化為長期財富增長的機會。此策略提供了一套具備紀律性與實務參考價值的操作指引,協助投資者在極端市場環境下,不僅能保護資產,更能掌握市場錯位所帶來的反彈契機。
    Reference: 1.Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129–152. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.2.129
    2.Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307–343. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(98)00027-0
    3.Black, F. (1976). Studies of stock market volatility changes. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 177–181.
    4.Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5
    5.Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
    6.Shiller, R. J. (2000). Irrational exuberance. Princeton University Press.
    7.Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12–17. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2000.319729
    8.Yahoo Finance. (2024). Historical data for SPY, 0050.TW, BRK.B, 9.SVXY. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/
    10.CBOE Global Markets. (2024). CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) historical data. Retrieved from https://www.cboe.com/
    11.CNN Business. (2024). Fear & Greed Index historical data. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
    12.ProShares. (2024). SVXY fund information and prospectus. Retrieved from https://www.proshares.com/
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
    112932137
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112932137
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[經營管理碩士學程EMBA] 學位論文

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