Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/159071
|
| Title: | 戰略轉變：中國的核擴張與威懾態勢的演變
Strategic Shifts: China's Nuclear Expansion and Evolving Deterrence Posture |
| Authors: | 柯林
Kaminski, Colin James |
| Contributors: | 袁力強
Yuan, Li-Chiang
柯林
Colin James Kaminski |
| Keywords: | 中國
台灣
核戰略
最低嚇阻
不首先使用
核現代化
預警發射
核恫嚇
China
Taiwan
Nuclear Strategy
Minimum Deterrence
No First Use
Nuclear Modernization
Launch on Warning
Nuclear Blackmail |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 14:59:11 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本論文探討中國核戰略自20世紀中葉起始至當前現代化進程的演變。論文主張，儘管中國在戰略教義上仍堅持最低嚇阻與不首先使用的政策，其日益擴張且多元化的核能力實則是對美國反力量技術與地區突發事件所帶來戰略脆弱感的回應。透過歷史分析、戰略文件與當前評估，本研究追溯中國發展核武的根本動機，包括毛澤東思想的影響、中蘇分裂後的地緣政治變化，以及中國為抵制美國核恫嚇所作出的努力。
研究進一步分析中國戰略態勢變化的意涵，特別是「初步」核三位一體的成形及其朝「預警發射」能力過渡的跡象。論文特別關注台灣情境，指出中國的核發展並非為實現核作戰，而是為了在常規衝突中威懾美國干預。結論認為，中國在核層面仍非修正主義者，但在常規層面上日益強勢，藉由其核保護傘，提升對台灣海峽及更廣泛地區的脅迫靈活性。
This thesis examines the evolution of China’s nuclear strategy from its inception in the mid-20th century to its current trajectory of modernization. It argues that while China remains doctrinally committed to policies of minimum deterrence and no first use, its expanding and increasingly diversified nuclear capabilities reflect a strategic response to perceived vulnerabilities in the face of U.S. counterforce technologies and regional contingencies. Drawing on historical analysis, doctrinal documents, and current assessments, the study traces the foundational motivations behind China's nuclear development including the influence of Maoist ideology, the fallout from the Sino-Soviet split, and efforts to resist U.S. nuclear coercion.
The research further investigates the implications of China’s force posture shifts, particularly the emergence of a “nascent” nuclear triad and signs of a transition toward a Launch on Warning capability. Special attention is given to the Taiwan context, where China’s nuclear developments appear designed not to facilitate nuclear warfighting but to deter U.S. intervention in a conventional conflict. The thesis concludes that while China remains non-revisionist at the nuclear level, it has become increasingly assertive at the conventional level, using its nuclear shield to enable greater coercive flexibility in the Taiwan Strait and beyond. |
| Reference: | Arkhipov, I. (1995). Memoirs of Ivan Arkhipov, submitted to the CPSUCC (1989), Records of major events in USSR-China conflict.
Asianometry. (2024). How China got the bomb [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpBxBuIzbV8&t=223s
Author’s interviews. (2016). [Unpublished interviews conducted in Beijing]. See also:
Sun, X. (n.d.). 核时代的战略选择 [Strategic choices in the nuclear age], p. 188.
BBC News. (2017, March 14). North Korea missile programme: How advanced is it? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39269783
Center for Strategic and International Studies. (n.d.). China nuclear weapons. ChinaPower Project. Retrieved June 8, 2025, from https://chinapower.csis.org/china-nuclear-weapons/
Chatham House. (2025). Why America may be triggering a new era of nuclear proliferation. The World Today https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2025-06/why-america-may-be-triggering-new-era-nuclear-proliferation
Center for Strategic and International Studies. (n.d.). Trident (U.S.). Missile Threat. Retrieved June 8, 2025, from https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/trident/
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. (2022). Under the nuclear shadow: Projection capabilities in the South China Sea. https://amti.csis.org/chinese-power-projection/
Chinese nuclear weapons 2025. (2025). Journal of East-West Strategic Studies. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2025.2467011
Coates, P. (2016, October 6). Submarine noise. Submarine Matters. https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/10/submarine-noise.html
Cumings, B. (1990). The origins of the Korean War: Volume II, The roaring of the cataract 1947-1950. Princeton University Press.
Cunningham, F. S. (2025). Under the nuclear shadow: China’s information-age weapons in international security. In C. Wilson (Ed.), Publishing series. Princeton University Press.
Cunningham, F. S., & Fravel, M. T. (2015). Assuring assured retaliation: China’s nuclear strategy and U.S.–China strategic stability. International Security, 40(2), 45–87.
Defense Intelligence Agency. (2024, October 23). Nuclear challenges: The growing capabilities of strategic competitors and regional rivals. https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Images/News/Military_Powers_Publications/Nuclear-Challenges-2024.pdf
Deng, L. (2004). 信息条件下第二炮兵和导弹作战运用理论研究 [Research on the combat role of Second Artillery nuclear missile forces under informatized conditions] (Master’s thesis, National Defense University, Beijing), p. 28.
Dingman, R. (1988/1989). Atomic diplomacy during the Korean War. International Security, 13(3), 50–91. https://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/94-96/sutyagin/01-05.htm
Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2025) (n.d.). Energy released in fusion reactions. In Nuclear fusion. https://www.britannica.com/science/nuclear-fusion/Energy-released-in-fusion-reactions
Erickson, A. S., & Goldstein, L. J. (2007). China’s future nuclear submarine force. Naval War College Review, 60(1), 55–79. https://books.google.com.tw/books?id=aoOk887bnvEC&pg=PA74
Eveleth, D. (2023, July 3). People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. https://nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/web_peoples_liberation_army_rocket_force_order_of_battle_07102023.pdf
Federation of American Scientists. (n.d.). JL‑1 submarine-launched ballistic missile (China). Retrieved June 8, 2025, from https://nuke.fas.org/guide/china/slbm/jl-1.htm
Freedman, L. (2004). Deterrence. Polity Press.
Fravel, M. T. (2008). Active defense: China’s military strategy since 1949 (pp. 182–191). Princeton University Press.
Gobarev, V. M. (1999). Soviet policy toward China: Developing nuclear weapons 1949–1969. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 12(4), 1–53. https://doi.org/10.1080/13518049908430415
Gordon, C. (2025, February 12). Air Force orders halt to some work on Sentinel ICBM. Air & Space Forces Magazine. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-orders-halt-some-work-sentinel-icbm/
Guo, X. (2022, October 24). 长导“理性、协调、并进”和安全观完善和安全治理体系 [Proposing a “rational, collaborative, and progressive” view of nuclear security, improving the nuclear security governance system]. 中国现代国际关系研究院. http://www.cicir.ac.cn/NEW/opinion.html?id=1b1d9862-3098-4596-9fads-d48811e40861
Halperin, M. H., & Ellsberg, D. (1966). The 1958 Taiwan Straits Crisis: A documented history (pp. I–xvii). https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM4900.html
Hautecouverture, B. (2025). Chinese no‑first‑use: A strategic signaling device, diplomatic tool, and dogmatic reality. Notes de la FRS (No 06/2025). Foundation for Strategic Research.
Hayes, P. (1991). Pacific powderkeg: American nuclear dilemmas in Korea (pp. 9–10). Lexington Books.
Helfrich, E., & Rogoway, T. (2023). More details on China’s exotic orbital hypersonic weapon come to light. The War Zone. https://www.twz.com/more-details-on-chinas-exotic-orbital-hypersonic-weapon-come-to-light
Helmore, E. (2023, November 26). Why is the US ramping up production of plutonium 'pits' for nuclear weapons? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/26/us-nuclear-arsenal-plutonium-pits
Hirata, K. (2024). Making Mao's steelworks: Industrial Manchuria and the transnational origins of Chinese socialism. Cambridge University Press.
Huth, P., & Russett, B. (1988). Deterrence and international conflict: Empirical findings and theoretical debates. Yale University Press.
Huth, P., & Russett, B. (1988). Deterrence failure and crisis escalation. International Studies Quarterly, 32(1), 29–45.
Japanese Ministry of Defense. (2023). Defense of Japan 2023. https://www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_paper/wp2023/DOJ2023_EN_Full.pdf
Jiang, W. (Ed.). (2016). 刘华清年谱 [Chronicle of Liu Huaqing]. (pp. 978–979). [Publisher unspecified].
Kristensen, H. M. (2023, May). Nuclear notebook: Russian nuclear weapons 2023. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-05/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
Kristensen, H. M. (2024, January). Chinese nuclear weapons 2024. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/
Kristensen, H. M. (2025). Chinese nuclear weapons 2025. Journal of East-West Strategic Studies. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2025.2467011
Kristensen, H. M., Korda, M., Johns, E., & Knight, M. (2024, January 16). Chinese nuclear forces, 2024: A "significant expansion". Federation of American Scientists. https://fas.org/publication/chinese-nuclear-forces-2024-a-significant-expansion/
Lebow, R. N., & Stein, J. G. (1990). Deterrence: The elusive dependent variable. World Politics, 42(3), 336, 342.
Levy, J. S. (1988). When do deterrent threats work? British Journal of Political Science, 18(4), 485–512.
Li, J., Lei, R., Li, Y., & Li, Y. (Eds.). (1987). China today: Nuclear industry. Beijing: China Social Science Press. https://thebulletin.org/2024/04/the-short-march-to-chinas-hydrogen-bomb/
Lin, J., & Singer, P. W. (2017, January 10). China’s new ballistic missile submarine could change its prospects in nuclear war. Popular Science. https://www.popsci.com/china-ballistic-missile-submarine-type-094a-ssbn/
Logan, D. C. (2016). PLA reforms and China’s nuclear forces [INSS Strategic Forum No. 299]. Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University. https://inss.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratforum/SF-299.pdf?ver=2016-11-28-093723-680
Lu, Y. (2021). 战略稳定：理论与实践问题研究 [Strategic stability: Concept and practice] (pp. 150, 157–161). 时事出版社.
Mao, Z. (1946, August). Talk with the American correspondent Anna Luise Strong. In Selected works of Mao Tse‑Tung(Vol. IV). Peking.
Mao, Z. (1999). Collected works of Mao Zedong (p. 326). People’s Publishing House. (Original speech delivered November 18, 1957)
Mao's theory on atomic bomb: 'They can't kill us all'. (1964, October 17). United Press International. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1964/10/17/Maos-theory-on-atomic-bomb-They-cant-kill-us-all/1653831424805/
Mazarr, M. J. (2018). Understanding deterrence. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE295/RAND_PE295.pdf
Medcalf, R., & Thomas-Noone, B. (2015). Nuclear-armed submarines in Indo-Pacific Asia: Stabiliser or menace? Lowy Institute for International Policy. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/files/nuclear-armed-submarines-in-indo-pacific-asia-stabiliser-or-menace_0.pdf
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China. (2024, July 23). [Press release reiterating PRC no‑first‑use pledge]. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/wjbxw/202407/t20240723_11458632.html
Minor, M. S. (1976). China's nuclear development program. Asian Survey, 16(6), 571–579. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2643520
Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. (n.d.). DF‑31 (CSS‑10) intercontinental-range missile (China). Retrieved June 8, 2025, from https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/todays-missile-threat/china/dong-feng-31-css-10/
Morrison, W. M. (2019). China’s economic rise: History, trends, challenges, and implications for the United States. Congressional Research Service. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33534.pdf
Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of China (1954). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Republic_of_China_Mutual_Defense_Treaty
Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea, U.S.–S. Kor., October 1, 1953. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_%28United_States%E2%80%93South_Korea%29
Narang, V. (2014). Nuclear strategy in the modern era: Regional powers and international conflict. Princeton University Press.
National Air and Space Intelligence Center. (2020, January). Ballistic and cruise missile threat. U.S. Air Force. https://media.defense.gov/2021/Jan/11/2002563190/-1/-1/1/2020/20BALLISTIC20AND/20CRUISE/20MISSILE//2020THREAT_FINAL_2OCT_REDUCEDFILE.PDF
Norris, R. S., Burrows, A. S., & Fieldhouse, R. W. (1994). Nuclear weapons databook: Volume V, British, French, and Chinese nuclear weapons (p. 326). Westview Press.
Nuclear Threat Initiative. (n.d.). China submarine capabilities. Retrieved June 8, 2025, from https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/china-submarine-capabilities/
O’Reilly, F. C. (n.d.). DF‑5A/B (Dong-Feng 5) intercontinental ballistic missile (China). Missile Threat. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/df-5-ab/
Panda, A. (2019, May 7). Pentagon: Air-launched ballistic missile will realize China’s nuclear triad. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/pentagon-air-launched-ballistic-missile-will-realize-chinas-nuclear-triad/
人民解放军总政治部 [General Political Department of the PLA]. (2014). 习近平关于国防和军队建设重要论述选编（第一卷） [A selection of Chairman Xi’s important expositions on national defense and army building (Vol. 1)]. 解放军出版社.
Reuters. (2016, September 2). China says developing new type of long‑range bomber. Reuters.
Richard, C. (2021, April 20). Statement before the Senate Committee on Armed Services. U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Richard04.20.2021.pdf
Roehrig, T. (2017). Japan, South Korea, and the United States nuclear umbrella: Deterrence after the Cold War. Columbia University Press.
Seck, H. H. (2025, April 9). First Columbia-class sub, two aircraft carriers face delivery delays, Navy officials tell Senate. USNI News. https://news.usni.org/2025/04/09/first-columbia-class-sub-two-aircraft-carriers-face-delivery-del
ays-navy-officials-tell-senate
Shen, D. (1990). The current status of Chinese nuclear forces and nuclear policy (Report No. 247, p. 2). Princeton University, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies. https://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/94-96/sutyagin/01-05.htm
Shen, Z., & Xia, Y. (2012). Between aid and restriction: The Soviet Union’s changing policies on China’s nuclear weapons program, 1954–1960. Asian Perspective, 36(1), 95–122. https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2012.0003
Shu, G. Z. (2004, November 16). Between ‘paper’ and ‘real tigers’: Mao’s view of nuclear weapons. In J. Gaddis et al. (Eds.), Cold War statesmen confront the bomb: Nuclear diplomacy since 1945 (online ed.). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198294689.003.0009
Snyder, G. H. (1959). Deterrence by denial and punishment. Center of International Studies.
Song, R. (1990). Reminiscences of Zhou Enlai. In Women de Zhou Zongli [Our Premier Zhou]. Beijing: Zhongyang Wenxian Chubanshe.
Sutton, H. I. (2021, February 1). First image of China’s new nuclear submarine under construction. Naval News. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/02/first-image-of-chinas-new-nuclear-submarine-under-construction/
Sutyagin, I. (1996). The role of nuclear weapons and its possible future missions. NATO. https://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/94-96/sutyagin/01-05.htm
Tilelli, J. H., Jr. (n.d.). Statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 105th Congress, 1st session.
Timerbaev, R. (1998). How the Soviet Union helped China develop the A-bomb. Yaderny Kontrol (Nuclear Control), (8).
Torode, G., & Lague, D. (2019, May 2). Special report: China’s furtive underwater nukes test the Pentagon. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-army-nuclear-specialreport-idUSKCN1S80YB/
Trofimov, Y. (2019, February 1). The new Beijing-Moscow axis. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-beijing-moscow-axis-11549036661
United States Department of Defense. (2019). Annual report to Congress: Military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China 2019. Office of the Secretary of Defense. https://media.defense.gov/2019/May/02/2002127082/-1/-1/1/2019_CHINA_MILITARY_POWER_REPORT.pdf
United States Department of Defense. (2022, November 29). Military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China [Annual report to Congress]. https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022‑MILITARY‑AND‑SECURIT
Y‑DEVELOPMENTS‑INVOLVING‑THE‑PEOPLES‑REPUBLIC‑OF‑CHINA.PDF
U.S. Department of Defense. (2024). Military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China 2024. https://media.defense.gov/2024/Dec/18/2003615520/-1/-1/0/MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2024.PDF
Waltz, K. N. (1960). On thermonuclear war. Princeton University Press.
Wang, X. (2015). 傅全有传（下） [Biography of Fu Quanyou (Vol. 2)]. 解放军出版社.
Weintraub, S. (2000). MacArthur's war: Korea and the undoing of an American hero (pp. 263–264). Simon & Schuster.
World Bank. (2021). Research and development expenditure (% of GDP). World Bank Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Wu, R. (2013). Certainty of uncertainty: Nuclear strategy with Chinese characteristics. Journal of Strategic Studies, 36(4), 482–504.
Xinhua News Agency. (2019, October 1). China holds grand gathering, parade on 70th National Day [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dit7zmnzAh0
Xinhua. (2024, March 5). China unveils 2024 growth targets with focus on high-quality development. Xinhua News. https://english.news.cn/20240305/d44cc4054efe4e5e99b06d0d22dfde03/c.html
Zhao, S. (2022). The dragon roars back: Transformational leaders and dynamics of Chinese foreign policy. Stanford University Press.
Zhang, H. (2024). The short march to China’s hydrogen bomb. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2024/04/the-short-march-to-chinas-hydrogen-bomb/
Zhou, C. (2008). 面对未来的国家安全与国防 [Facing future national security and defense]. 国防大学出版社.
Zhou, J. (Ed.). (1999). Nie Rongzhen nianpu (Chronology of Nie Rongzhen) (Vols. 1–2). Beijing: 人民出版社.
Zhou, Y. (2020, February). Less revolution, more realpolitik: China's foreign policy in the early and middle 1970s. The Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/less-revolution-more-realpolitik-chinas-foreign-policy-early-and-middle-1970s |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
110926020 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110926020 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS)] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| index.html | | 0Kb | HTML | 22 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
