東亞的戰略與經貿生態在最近幾年面臨結構性的改變，其中最重要的發展是中國崛起與東亞區域主義意識下印度、南韓甚至俄羅斯的興起與日增的影響力，均迫使美國調整其在東亞的戰略角色。本文的主要論點是美國在攻打伊拉克以後，在東亞面臨最惡劣的戰略環境，即使布希政府把全球外交政策東移，在東亞與南亞各國廣結善緣，仍然沒有改變逐漸失去在東亞原有的主導者之角色；而中國和日本將會在東亞事務上發揮日益重要的角色，整個東亞也會往多元領導的形勢發展。 The strategic and economic environments of the East Asia have changed rapidly in recent years. The rise of China and growing importance of India, Russia, and South Korea are two of the most prominent developments. Thus, the United States’ strategic role in this area has also altered from sole hegemony in the 1990s to one of the few leading players, sharing leadership and responsibilities with mainland China, Japan, and India. Furthermore, the East Asia has entered a stage of multipolarity. In political and diplomatic fields, the US will compete and cooperate with China, Japan at same time; in economic and trade fields, the US will fight for the leadership in East Asia. But in military and security fields, the US will still maintain its hegemonic role within quite a long time.
國際關係學報, 23, 91-122 Journal of international relations