English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 111316/142225 (78%)
Visitors : 48381215      Online Users : 660
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/113638


    Title: 2014臺灣地方選舉「柯文哲現象」的外溢效果：民進黨新竹市長候選人林智堅的個案分析
    Spill-over Effects of the ＂Ko Wen-je Phenomenon＂ in Taiwan’s 2014 Local Elections: Case Study of Potential Coattail Effects on DPP Hsinchu City Mayoral Candidate Lin Chi-jian
    Authors: 陳明通
    楊喜慧
    Chen, Ming-Tong
    Yang, Shi-Huei
    Keywords: 柯文哲現象;衣擺效應;母雞帶小雞效應;2014臺灣地方選舉
    Ko Wen-je phenomenon;coattail effects;bandwagon effects;2014 Taiwan local elections
    Date: 2016-05
    Issue Date: 2017-10-16 17:06:38 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 2014年11月29日「九合一」選舉結果，國民黨遭受臺灣自有地方選舉以來最嚴重的挫敗。在全部22個地方首長中，從過去超過三分之二的15席，減少到不及三分之一的6席。最令人矚目的是代表「在野大聯盟」角逐臺北市長的柯文哲，打敗國民黨提名的連勝文，大贏連勝文將近25萬票，並中止了國民黨在臺北市長達16年的執政地位，這是前未有過的紀錄。選後國民黨的一份檢討報告指出，國民黨如此慘敗的原因之一是「首都選戰影響外溢擴及其他縣市」。換言之，「柯文哲現象」讓國民黨其他縣市選情連帶受到影響。「柯文哲現象」是否真有如此外溢效應？本文以新竹市長選情為例，透過一系列實證資料，運用「複層次結構非線性模型」結合個體與總體資料分析，驗證「柯文哲現象」對民進黨新竹市長候選人林智堅的外溢效果。研究結果顯示，在個體層次的變項上，新竹市選民對林智堅的偏好、政黨取向及年齡，顯著地影響對林智堅的支持度。在總體層次的變項上，柯文哲的支持度、媒體曝光度及電視新聞評論節目對柯文哲的正面或負面批評，都顯著地影響新竹市選民對林智堅的支持度。研究發現證實「柯文哲現象」的外溢效果，也就是所謂的「衣擺效應」(coattail effects)或「母雞帶小雞效應」存在。
    In nation-wide local elections held on November 29, 2014, the Kuomintang (KMT) suffered its worst defeat in the post-war history of local elections in Taiwan. The party saw its control of the country’s 22 local executive posts dwindle from 15 to only 6. Most notable among the KMT’s setbacks was its mayoral election defeat in the Taipei City, which had been run by a KMT mayor for 16 years. Ko Wen-je, an independent who ran under the banner of a ＂grand opposition alliance,＂ defeated KMT candidate Sean Lien by nearly 250,000 votes. The KMT`s post-election review report pointed to spill-over effects from the Taipei election to other local contests as one of the reasons for its crushing defeat nation-wide. Did the ＂Ko Wen-je phenomenon＂ truly produce such spill-over effects? This study looks at the Hsinchu City mayoral election, using various empirical data to assess potential spill-over effects from Ko`s Taipei candidacy to that of DPP Hsinchu City mayoral candidate Lin Chi-jian. Hierarachical non-linear modeling is applied to analyze a combination of individual-level and macro-level data. The data analysis shows that with respect to individual-level variables, voters` preference for Lin Chi-jian, party-orientation, and age clearly influenced the level of support for Lin`s candidacy. At the macro-level, support for Lin was positively correlated with Ko Wen-je`s level of support and media exposure as well as positive commentary on Ko`s candidacy on television news programs. The results of the study confirm the existence of coattail effects of the Ko Wen-je phenomenon in Taiwan’s 2014 local elections.
    Relation: 選舉研究 , 23(1) , 107-151
    Data Type: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.6612%2ftjes.2016.23.01.107-151
    DOI: 10.6612/tjes.2016.23.01.107-151
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File SizeFormat
    23(1)(107-151).pdf1778KbAdobe PDF2584View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback