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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/114454


    Title: 台灣選舉與民主化調查固定樣本(TEDS panel)之代表性探討
    The Examination of Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Study Panel Data
    Authors: 陳光輝
    劉從葦
    Chen, Kuang-Hui
    Liu, Tsung-Wei
    Keywords: 台灣選舉與民主化調查;固定樣本連續訪談;樣本流失;訪問效應
    TEDS;panel study;panel attrition;panel effect
    Date: 2006-11
    Issue Date: 2017-11-08 11:09:16 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 「台灣選舉與民主化調查」(TEDS)執行了兩次固定樣本連續訪談，提供了非常珍貴的資料來進行台灣選民變遷的動態描述與因果模型的建立。然而，樣本流失與訪問效應可能會對於使用固定樣本資料的研究產生影響，亦即造成內部與外部效度的問題。比較TEDS固定樣本的成功再訪與失敗樣本後發現，樣本的流失並非隨機發生，成功與失敗樣本雖然在政治態度上沒有顯著差異，但在人口學變項上卻有程度不等的系統性差異。
    TEDS 2003與2004P調查的成功樣本分為固定樣本與獨立樣本兩類，其中固定樣本是再次訪問TEDS 2001的成功樣本，而獨立樣本則是該次訪問另行獨立抽出的受訪者。由於接受學術單位長達半小時以上的面對面政治類訪問是個不尋常的經驗，受訪者在接受訪問後應該會特別注意政治相關訊息並增加政治參與的頻率與程度。因此，這三次TEDS調查可視為一個大型的率實驗設計：固定樣本是實驗組，獨立樣本是對照組，刺激變項則是受訪經驗。比較固定樣本與獨立樣本和觀察固定樣本在兩個時間點之間的變化後發現，訪問效應的確會改變受訪者的政治態度，並有限度地提高政治參與的程度。綜合樣本流失與訪問效應的檢視，整體而官，TEDS固定樣本的成功樣本是偏差樣本，在使用時必須加以注意或處理。
    TEDS conducted two waves of panel studies. These panel data can be used to describe the dynamics of Taiwanese voters and to develop related causal models. However, because of panel attrition and panel effect, there may be problems of internal and external validity. The examination of panel data shows that the panel attrition did not occur randomly. There are significant differences between those respondents who participated in the second interview and those who dropped out in terms of demographic characteristics, but no significant difference was found in terms of political attitudes.
    Both TEDS 2003 and 2004P were composed of panel samples and independent samples. Panel samples are those respondents who were interviewed in TEDS 2001 and independent samples are those respondents who were never interviewed before. To be interviewed by academic research staff is a special experience, so the respondents may be intrigued to access more political information and become more willing to participate in political activities afterwards. Therefore, the three TEDS surveys could be treated as a quasi-experiment. While the panel samples is treatment group, the independent samples is control group, and the interview is the treatment. This quasi-experiment demonstrates that panel effect did change the respondents` political attitudes and increase their political participation. To sum up the consequences of panel attrition and panel effect, TEDS panel data are biased. Researchers who analyze this data set should be attentive to the issue of biased sample and think about the methods to correct the bias before drawing conclusions or making inferences.
    Relation: 選舉研究 , 13(2) , 75-116
    Data Type: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.6612%2ftjes.2006.13.02.75-116
    DOI: 10.6612/tjes.2006.13.02.75-116
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

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