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| 題名: | 臺灣各縣市平均溫度對新生兒性別比之影響
The Impact of Average Temperature on the Sex Ratio of Newborns –Evidence from Taiwan's Counties and Cities |
| 作者: | 陳均育 |
| 貢獻者: | 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
陳均育 |
| 關鍵詞: | 空間自我迴歸模型
空間計量
氣候變遷
新生兒性別比
Spatial Autoregressive Model
Spatial Econometrics
Climate Change
Sex Ratio of Newborns |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-08-04 14:45:59 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 臺灣自1980年代以來，新生兒性別比（Sex Ratio at Birth,SRB）長期偏離自然範圍（約105），特別在部分地區與時期甚至出現明顯的男嬰偏高現象，反映出可能存在的性別偏好、胎兒選擇行為或其他結構性社會因素。近年來，隨著氣候變遷對健康與生育結果的影響日益受到重視，環境壓力是否成為性別比異常的潛在因素，引發學界關注。然而，目前針對臺灣地區進行系統性實證研究者仍屬有限，有鑑於此，本文試圖從空間計量的角度，探討溫度變化對新生兒性別比的影響。
本研究採用空間自我迴歸模型（Spatial Autoregressive Model,SAR），以臺灣20個直轄市與縣市為研究樣本，涵蓋2013年至2023年共220筆年度資料。結果顯示，天氣溫度變化、生母為外國人、縣市幸福指數以及女性參與農業產業比率等四項變數，對新生兒對性別比具有顯著影響。
SAR模型亦指出新生兒的性別比具顯著空間相依性，意味著某地區的偏高或偏低現象會透過地理鄰近關係，影響周邊地區的生育結果，反映出生育觀念、醫療行為或文化習俗具擴散效果。本研究結果突顯，理解新生兒性別比異常現象不僅需關注個別區域的社會與經濟條件，更須納入氣候與空間網絡因素進行綜合考量，對制定地區性別平衡與生育政策提供重要參考。
Since the 1980s, Taiwan's sex ratio at birth (SRB) has long deviated from the natural range (approximately 105), with certain regions and periods exhibiting a notably higher number of male births. This suggests the possible presence of gender preferences, fetal selection behaviors, or other structural societal factors. In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to the impact of climate change on health and reproductive outcomes, raising academic interest in whether environmental stressors may contribute to abnormal SRB patterns. However, systematic empirical research focusing on Taiwan remains limited. In light of this, the present study aims to explore the impact of temperature variation on SRB from a spatial econometric perspective.
This study employs a Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR), using data from Taiwan's 20 cities and counties, covering a total of 220 annual observations from 2013 to 2023. The results indicate that four variables—temperature changes, the proportion of foreign-born mothers, the regional happiness index, and the percentage of women engaged in agricultural industries—have significant effects on SRB.
The SAR model also reveals that SRB exhibits significant spatial dependence, suggesting that high or low SRB in one region may influence birth outcomes in neighboring areas through geographic proximity. This reflects the potential diffusion of reproductive norms, medical practices, or cultural customs. The findings underscore the importance of incorporating not only local social and economic conditions but also climate and spatial network factors when analyzing abnormal SRB patterns. This research provides valuable insights for the formulation of regional gender balance and reproductive policy. |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
112921025 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112921025 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文
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