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| Title: | 貿易全球化與民主：助力或阻力
Trade globalization and democracy: Improvement or impediment |
| Authors: | 劉任竣
LIU, REN-JUN |
| Contributors: | 李佳怡
Lee, Chia-yi
劉任竣
LIU, REN-JUN |
| Keywords: | 貿易全球化
經濟全球化
民主倒退
民主鞏固
貧富不均
收入不平等
民粹主義
侍從主義
匈牙利民粹
Trade globalization
Economic globalization
Democratic backsliding
Democratic consolidation
Economic inequality
Income inequality
Populism
Clientelism
Hungarian populism |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 16:17:05 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 近二十年來，全球民主發展趨緩甚至倒退，匈牙利民主倒退、英國脫歐引發的社會分裂與極化，和全球威權主義再起，皆反映此一趨勢。本文旨在探究貿易全球化於此變遷過程中扮演的深層角色。研究以1990–2017年為期，根據數位革命、全球金融危機和新自由秩序的興衰劃分為三個時期，並區分民主與非民主政體進行比較分析。此外，本文使用時間橫斷面跨國數據迴歸分析及中介變數模型，驗證收入不平等、民粹主義與侍從主義等機制，並以KOF Economic Globalization Index (KOFEcGI)全球化指數進行穩健性檢測。
研究結果指出，僅於2009–2017年間，貿易全球化對民主國家之民主化程度產生統計上顯著的負向影響，而非民主國家未出現類似趨勢。三項中介變數中，民粹主義與侍從主義於該時期民主國家中展現出明確的中介效應。進一步分析亦發現，未達民主鞏固的國家對貿易全球化的脆弱性更高，亦使貧富差距成為具顯著中介效果的變數。本文藉由時期劃分與政體類型交互分析，深化對全球化與民主互動動態之理解，並以匈牙利個案驗證所得不均、民粹動員與侍從主義對民主侵蝕的具體機制，對全球化衝擊下的民主韌性研究提供理論與實證貢獻。
In the past two decades, democratic development has stagnated or even globally regressed. Phenomena such as democratic backsliding in Hungary, social polarization triggered by Brexit in the UK, and the resurgence of authoritarianism worldwide all illustrate this trend. This thesis aims to explore the deeper role played by trade globalization in this process of democratic change. The research period covers 1990–2017, divided into three distinct phases based on the digital revolution, the global financial crisis and the ascendance and subsequent decline of the Liberal International Order, with comparisons between democratic and non-democratic regimes. Utilizing time-series cross-sectional regression and mediation analysis models, this study examines income inequality, populism, and clientelism as intermediary mechanisms, and conducts robustness checks using the KOF Economic Globalization Index (KOFEcGI).
Empirical results indicate that only during the period 2009–2017 did trade globalization exert a statistically significant negative impact on democratization in democratic countries, whereas no such effect was observed in non-democratic regimes. Among the three mediating variables, populism and clientelism demonstrated clear mediating effects within democratic nations during this period. Further analysis reveals that countries not yet consolidated in democracy are particularly vulnerable to the negative influences of trade globalization, thereby rendering income inequality a statistically significant mediating variable. By systematically distinguishing between different time periods and regime types, this study clarifies the complex dynamics between globalization and democracy. Additionally, the Hungarian case is employed to illustrate concrete mechanisms through which income inequality, populist mobilization, and clientelism erode democratic institutions. Ultimately, this thesis contributes both theoretically and empirically to understanding democratic resilience under the impacts of globalization. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
111253008 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111253008 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
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