English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 110944/141864 (78%)
Visitors : 47951567      Online Users : 1020
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 企業管理學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/35061
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35061


    Title: 外匯選擇權的定價-馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法(MCMC)之績效探討
    Authors: 任紀為
    Contributors: 杜化宇
    任紀為
    Keywords: 馬可夫鍵蒙地卡羅
    狀態轉換波動
    吉普斯抽樣
    笑狀波幅
    Markov-chain Monte Carlo
    Regime-switching volatility
    Gibbs sampling
    Volatility smile
    Date: 2004
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 13:41:54 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在真實世界中,我們可以觀察到許多財務或經濟變數(股價、匯率、利率等)有時波動幅度非常微小,呈現相對穩定的狀態(Regime);有時會由於政治因素或經濟環境的變動,突然一段期間呈現瘋狂震盪的狀態。針對這種現象,已有學者提出狀態轉換波動度模型(Regime Switching Volatility Model,簡稱RSV)來捕捉此一現象。

    本篇論文選擇每年交易金額非常龐大的外匯選擇權市場,以RSV模型為基礎,採用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法 ( Markov Chain Monte Carlo,簡稱MCMC ) 中的吉普斯抽樣(Gibbs Sampling)法來估計RSV模型的參數,依此預測外匯選擇權在RSV模型下的價格。我們再將此價格與Black and Scholes(BS)法及實際市場交易的價格資料作比較,最後並提出笑狀波幅與隱含波動度平面的結果。結果顯示經由RSV模型與MCMC演算法所計算出來的選擇權價格確實優於傳統的BS方法,且能有效解釋波動率期間結構 (Volatility Term Structure) 與笑狀波幅 (Volatility Smile) 的現象,確實反應且捕捉到了市場上選擇權價格所應具備的特色。
    Reference: 一、中文部分(依作者姓名筆畫排列)
    杜化宇,期貨與選擇概論. John C. Hull 原著,民國八十九年,雙葉書廊。
    阮建豐, ”利用混合模型估計風險值的探討” ,國立政治大學統計學研究所碩士論文,民國九十年六月。
    陳松男,金融工程學.,民國九十一年,華泰書局出版。
    黃大展, ”隨機波動下的二元樹狀模型之探討” ,國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文,民國九十年六月。
    謝盈弘, ”馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法在外匯選擇權定價的應用” ,國立政治大學統計學研究所碩士論文,民國九十一年六月。
    二、英文部分(依作者姓氏字母排列)
    Bahra, B. (1997) “Implied Risk-neutral Probability Functions From Option Prices: Theory and Application.” , Working Paper.
    Bauwens, L. and Lubrano, M. (1998) “Bayesian inference on GARCH models using the Gibbs sampler.” , Econometrics Journal, Vol. 1, P23-46.
    Bauwens, L. and Lubrano, M. (2002) “Bayesian option pricing using asymmetric GARCH models.” , Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 9, P321-342.
    Bollen, N. P. B. (1998) “Valuing Options in Regime-Switching Models.” , Journal of Derivatives , Vol. 6, P38-49.
    Bollen, N. P. B., Gray, S. F. and Whaley, R. E. (2000) “Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices.” , Journal of Econometrics, Vol.94, P239-276.
    Bollen, N. P. B. and Rasiel, E. (2003) “The performance of alternative valuation models in the OTC currency options market .”Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 22, P33-64.
    Brigo, D. and Mercurio, F. (2002) “Lognormal-mixture dynamics and calibration to market volatility smiles.”International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol. 5, P427-446
    Broadie, M., Boyle, P. and Glasserman, P. (1997) “Monte Carlo methods for security pricing.”, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, Vol. 21, P1267-1321.
    Campa, J. M. and Chang, P. H. (1995) “Testing the expectations hypothesis on the term structure of volatilities in foreign exchange options.” , Journal of Finance, Vol. 50, P529-547.
    Chib, S. and Albert, J. H. (1993) “Bayesian Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts.”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , Vo1. 11, P1-15.
    Chib, S. and Greenberg, E. (1996) “Markov chain monte carlo simulation methods in Econometrics.”, Econometric Theory , Vol. 12, P409-431.
    Chib, S. , Nardari, F. and Shephard, N. (2002) “Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic Volatility Models.”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 108, P 281-316..
    Chriss, N. A. (1997) Black-Scholes and Bayesian_Option Pricing Models, McGraw-Hill.
    Clewlow, L. and Strickland, C. (1998) Implementing Derivatives Models. Wiley.
    Congdon, P. (2001) Bayesian Statistical Modeling . Wiley.
    Cox, J. and Ross, S. (1976) “The Value of Options for Alternative Stochastic Process” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, P145-166.
    Derosa, D. F. (1998) Currency Derivatives . Wiley .
    Derosa, D. F. (2000) Option on foreign exchange. Wiley.
    Duan, J.(1995) “The GARCH Option Pricing Model”, Mathematical Finance, Vol. 5, P13-32.
    Duan, J.and Wei, J. (1999) “Pricing Foreign Currency and Cross-Currency Options Under GARCH”, Journal of Derivatives , Vol. 3 , P51-63.
    Gemmill, C. and Apostolos, S. (2000) “How useful are Implied Distribution?Evidence from Stock Index Options.”, Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 2, P83-98.
    Gesser, V. and Poncet, P. (1997) “Volatility Patterns Theory and Some Evidence From the Dollar-Mark Option Market.”, Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 7, P46-61.
    Gilks, W. R., Richardson, S. and Spiegelhalter D. J. (1996) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, Chapman and Hall/CRC.
    Guidolin, M. and Timmermann, A. (2003) “Option Prices under Bayesian Learning : Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities.” , Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Vol. 27, P717-769.
    Hamilton, J. D. (1991) “A Quasi-Bayesian Approach to Estimating Parameters for Mixtures of Normal Distributions.” , Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. l9, P23-39.
    Hamilton, J. D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton.
    Heston, S. and Nandi, S. (2000) “A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model. ”, Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 13, P585-625.
    Heston, S. (1993) “A Closed –Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Application to Bond and Currency Options.” , Review of Financial Studies, Vol.6, P327-343.
    Hull, J. and White, A. (1987) “The pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities.” , Journal of Finance, Vol. 42 , P281-300.
    Hull, J. C. (2003), Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, 5th ed. Prentice Hall.
    Jones, C. S. (1998) “Bayesian Estimation of Continuous-Time Finance Models.” , Working Paper.
    Kim, C. J. and Nelson, C. R. (1999) State-Space Models with Regime-Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications, MIT Press.
    Malz, A. M. (1997) “Estimating the probability distribution of the future exchange rate from option prices.” , Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 7, P244-253.
    Mikkelsen P. (2001) “MCMC Based Estimation of Term Structure Models”, Working Paper.
    Ripley, B. D. (1987) Stochastic Simulation . Wiley.
    Ross, S. M. (1997) Simulation . Academic Press.
    Rossi, P. E. , Jacquier, E. and Polson, N. G. (1994) “Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models.”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol.12, P371-389.
    Rubinstein, R. Y. (1981) Simulation and Monte Carlo Method. Wiley.
    Shepard, N. (1993) “Fitting nonlinear time-series models with applications to stochastic variance models.” , Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 8 , P135-152.
    So, M. K. P., Lam, K. and Li, W. K. (1998) “A stochastic volatility model with markov switching.” , Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 16, P244-253.
    Tsay, R. S. (2002) Analysis of Financial Time Series, Wiley.
    Venables, W. N. and Ripley, B. D. (2000) Modern Applied Statistics with S-Plus, Springer.
    Xu, X. and Taylor, S. J. (1994a) “The Magnitude of Implied Volatility Smiles: Theory and Empirical Evidence for Exchange Rates.”, Review of Future Markets, Vol. 13, P355-380.
    Xu, X. and Taylor, S. J. (1994b) “The Term Structure of Volatility Implied by Foreign Exchange Options.” , Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 29 , P57-74.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    企業管理研究所
    92355055
    93
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923550551
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[企業管理學系] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    55055101.pdf47KbAdobe PDF2754View/Open
    55055102.pdf79KbAdobe PDF2773View/Open
    55055103.pdf67KbAdobe PDF2758View/Open
    55055104.pdf74KbAdobe PDF2873View/Open
    55055105.pdf108KbAdobe PDF21699View/Open
    55055106.pdf160KbAdobe PDF22335View/Open
    55055107.pdf215KbAdobe PDF21465View/Open
    55055108.pdf188KbAdobe PDF21015View/Open
    55055109.pdf95KbAdobe PDF21333View/Open
    55055110.pdf77KbAdobe PDF21011View/Open
    55055111.pdf412KbAdobe PDF2814View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback