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    題名: 中國氣候變遷對經濟成長影響之研究
    The impacts of climate change on China’s economic growth
    作者: 許怡君
    貢獻者: 黃智聰
    許怡君
    關鍵詞: 中國
    氣候變遷
    經濟成長
    雙因子固定效果模型
    日期: 2010
    上傳時間: 2011-09-29 18:33:35 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 隨著高度的經濟發展,對於溫室氣體的排放逐年遞增,進一步造成了溫室效應以及全球暖化的現象。而全球暖化造成的影響除了極地冰原融化,海平面上升,淹沒較低窪的沿海陸地,衝擊低地國及多數國家沿海精華區。也造成全球氣候變遷,導致不正常暴雨、乾旱現象以及沙漠化現象擴大,對於生態體系、水土資源、經濟成長與生命安全等都會造成傷害。
    文獻上對於經濟成長造成的碳排放量增加,導致溫室效應的研究比比皆是,但是對於全球暖化導致的氣候變遷,對於經濟成長的影響卻是寥寥可數。尤其中國作為世界最大、經濟成長最快的發展中國家,氣候變遷是否會影響其經濟發展,是本研究相當感興趣的議題。因此,本研究將利用1994-2009年中國各主要城市氣候的追蹤資料,搭配雙因子固定效果模型的估計,希望透過本研究,瞭解並分析中國經濟的發展歷程、現況與未來發展趨勢;分析中國氣候變遷對經濟成長的影響,並提出具體的因應對策。
    結果顯示,氣候變遷變數的確會影響中國各省市的經濟成長,表示氣溫越高,對於經濟成長有顯著的負面影響,而且氣溫的穩定性的確會影響經濟成長,符合本研究的假設。接著考慮氣候變遷對於農業產值比重高的地區是否有較大的影響時,發現在農業比重高的地區,降雨量的穩定性會影響經濟成長,也就是說降雨量越不穩定,越不利於經濟成長。若將中國各省市區分為沿海與非沿海地區,也大致得到上述結果。而本研究所得到的結論,證明了氣候變遷對於經濟成長有顯著負面的影響,未來將會是中國追求高度經濟成長所面臨的嚴峻考驗。
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    行政管理碩士學程
    98921004
    99
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098921004
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文

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