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| 題名: | 台灣季節性消費品銷售預測之研究
The investigation of forecasting models for the sales of seasonal consumer products in Taiwan |
| 作者: | 潘家鋒
Pan, Jason |
| 貢獻者: | 張逸民
Chang, Yegming
潘家鋒
Pan, Jason |
| 關鍵詞: | 季節性消費品
銷售量預測
MSE
sales forecast
seasonal consumer products
winters
decomposition
mean square error
NCSS |
| 日期: | 2010 |
| 上傳時間: | 2011-10-05 14:29:05 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | The trend seasonal demand pattern is encountered when both trend and seasonal influences are interactive. The problem of this research is to project the seasonal market sales using ice cream and fresh milk in Taiwan as examples. In order to improve the accuracy of forecast, two different methods are validated and the best forecasting method is selected based on the minimum Mean Square Error.
In this study, we present two forecasting models used for evaluation to predict seasonal market sales of ice cream, fresh milk, and air conditioner in Taiwan. It includes Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model and the Decomposition method. Two different methods are validated and the best forecasting method is selected based on the minimum Mean Square Error.
After the validation process, Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model is selected based on the minimum MSE, and the monthly sales forecast for the year of 2011 is conducted using the data(60 months). Number Cruncher Statistical System (NCSS) is used for analyzing the data which proves useful and powerful.
In summary, the results demonstrate that Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model has the smallest mean square error in this case. Therefore, we conclude that both Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model and the Decomposition model are well fitted for forecasting the seasonal market sales. Yet, Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model is the better method to be used in this study since it generates the smallest mean square error (MSE) during the period of validation. |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理研究所
98355070
99 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098355070 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [企業管理學系] 學位論文
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