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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/63586

    Title: 中國國家能力研究與崩潰論失準討論
    Other Titles: A Study Approach of State Capacity towards China Collapse Thesis
    Authors: 初國華;張昌吉
    Chu, Gwo-Hua;Chang, Chun-Chig
    Contributors: 勞工所
    Keywords: 中國崩潰論;中國預測;國家能力;黨國體制
    China Collapse Thesis;Predict China;State Capacity;Party State Regime
    Date: 2013.07
    Issue Date: 2014-01-24 17:47:43 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 天安門事件後的中國崩潰論,直到九○年代的中後期,仍在國際間不絕於耳。但若對照當今的中國崛起,則這都屬理論預測或經驗判斷對事實的落差或預測失準,這是值得研究的。至於,如何解釋與調適崩潰論與現實中國的落差,並嘗試改善對中國預測的模型,則是本文之研究目的。共產國家國際結構骨牌分析以及政治保守、經濟改革的崩潰預測,其推論過程都忽略中共因素的反應與抵制,以及中共回應外界變遷與挑戰的能力。本文擬從國家能力觀點對上述議題作分析。
    Since the appearance of the China collapse theory after the Tiananmen incident, discussions over the Middle Kingdom`s collapse have been incessant. However, compared with China`s rise today, it is interesting to observe the theory`s failed prediction and misinterpretation of empirical evidences. This article aims to close the gulf between theory and reality and improve on models that attempt to forecast China`s future. Domino theories and pessimistic predictions about communist states fail to take into account the CCP`s ability to react and respond to changes and challenges from the outside world. This article tackles the issue from the approach of state capacity theory.
    Relation: 全球政治評論, 43,41-70
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[勞工研究所] 期刊論文

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